Man I left this late.
Ah well, school takes precedence anyway.
CHAMPIONSHIP5 matches left, and the races are starting to heat up! Reading (79) has risen to meet Southampton (79) at the top of the table, while Wet Spam (75) have slipped up to drop out of auto-promo spot. They aren't out of the running but they need to smarten up. (Although I hope they don't
)
The team that really needs to smarten up, though, is Middlesbrough (63) - last update they were challenging for top. Now they aren't even in a playoff spot! To be fair though, they sit just one point out in a close playoff battle. They do have to snap a seven-game winless streak to get there, though.
Birmingham (69), Blackpool (66), and Cardiff (64) currently hold the playoff spots, although the latter two could lose it in an instant and Birmingham is by no means out of danger. Middlesbrough and Brighton & Hove Albion (also 63) are the biggest threats, Leicester (59) and Hull (58) are within two wins, and Leeds, Derby, Watford (all 57), Burnley, Ipswich (both 56), and even Crystal Palace (54) are all still mathematically within a shot. Palace in particular is in a unique position, though - they're the only team left that both has a chance of the playoffs AND can still be caught by the highest red-zone club. A point for Palace should fix the latter, though.
At the other end, it looks like it's going to be close right at the end. While Doncaster (32) appears all but screwed, they still have some hope mathematically speaking, but it is fading fast. Portsmouth (34) may not survive the season anyway, but they're within two wins of safety. It's really Coventry (39) that one should be watching closely since they are but one point behind Bristol City (40) and four behind Nottingham Forest (43), being on a seven-game unbeaten streak (2W 5D). Millwall (44) is also not even two wins out of the red, and Barnsley (46) has only taken 4 points from the last possible 30, so they could slip yet. Peterborough (48), on the other hand, is starting to pull away a bit.
LEAGUE ONEIt seems the upper part of the table has gotten close. Charlton (88) still holds a six-point advantage over Sheffield United (82), but that's less than half of what they had last update! They were beaten by Huddersfield (74), who then decided to lose two of their last three - the loss against Sheffield Wednesday (80) was no real surprise, but Carlisle? (65) Not good for them. Good for Carlisle, though - they hold the last playoff spot with a game in hand on everyone in the league save Stevenage (59), they're trying to catch MK Dons (68), and they have emerging Notts County (63) and red-hot Brentford (62 - five-game win streak going) right on their heels. While Colchester (54), Tranmere, Hartlepool (both 51), and marginally, Bournemouth and Yeovil (both 50) have a shot at the playoffs, I don't expect them to do much. Good for Yeovil for putting a serious dent in their chances of getting relegated, though.
Currently, the magic number of points to get out of danger is a surprisingly high 57, which is 15 clear of Wycombe (42) - right now, the Wanderers seem to be the only red-zoners that are even trying, with Rochdale, Exeter (both 35) and Chesterfield (33) slipping fast. Actually, another loss and Chesterfield's officially condemned to relegation. A combination of a win by Walsall, Bury, and Leyton Orient (all 46) and a loss by Rochdale and Exeter will do likewise to those two. It is Wycombe that everyone needs to keep their eyes on:
Preston North End - 48 (-14, 49 GF)
Oldham Athletic - 48 (-14, 45 GF)
Walsall - 46 (-3)
Bury - 46 (-22, 51 GF)
Leyton Orient - 46 (-22, 42 GF)
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Wycombe - 42
Still in marginal danger are Colchester (if Wycombe loses their next match that'll be the end of that), Tranmere, Hartlepool (see above), Bournemouth, Yeovil (ditto), and Sc*nthorpe (49).
LEAGUE TWOThis current setup is actually what I was expecting earlier in the season. Swindon (83) and Torquay (78) sit 1-2, but by no means is this set in stone, with Shrewsbury (75) and Crawley (73) having a game in hand on Torquay. Southend (70) and Cheltenham (68) are a bit harder pressed to catch the chart-toppers since they don't have said game in hand, and along with Oxford (65) they have their own worries to think about anyway - Crewe (63), Gillingham (62) and Aldershot (57 but with a game in hand) are the biggest threats to the current playoff holders, while Rotherham (59) also has a decent shot. Morecambe (54) and Accrington Stanley (53) are dark horses at this point. Bristol Rovers (51) are pretty much eliminated from playoff contention, and Port Vale (49) will only be back in contention if they get out of administration.
Remember last month, when Northampton and Dag & Red were in the red (no pun intended)? Not now, they aren't.
That "honour" now belongs to Macclesfield and Hereford (both 36). Northampton (45) has only lost once in its last nine matches and has won four of seven (4W 2D 1L) since my last update, blasting the club nine clear of the red - and they still have a game in hand on top of it all! The Daggers (42) are in a little more immediate danger, but they have done well for themselves to go six clear, winning three of their last five (3W 2D 0L). Plymouth Argyle (41) are on a similar run of form, except they've only won twice in their five-game unbeaten streak as opposed to Dag's three wins. If there's one team that should be shaking in their boots right now, it's Barnet (39). Bradford City (43) are also in somewhat immediate danger, but that is fading fast.
CONFERENCE PREMIERLooks like Fleetwood (101) are starting to run away with this sucker. While Wrexham (90) can still catch them, Fleetwood only needs four more points, or a combination of a point and a Wrexham loss, to lock the title up. This means Wrexham should probably start prepping for the playoffs, which they are already a lock for, being 20 clear of the three-way points logjam occupying the last two playoff spots and the first position out of the playoffs:
1. Fleetwood - 101
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2. Wrexham - 90
3. Mansfield - 77
4. York - 70 (+31)
5. Kidderminster - 70 (+17)
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6. Southport - 70 (+2)
7. Luton - 67 (+28)
8. Gateshead - 67 (+7)
9. Grimsby - 65
10. Forest Green - 64
In the above table it should also be noted that Luton has two games in hand on Southport and Kidderminster (not to mention Grimsby and Forest Green) and one on Gateshead.
Cambridge (61) and Braintree (60) are also outside shots. Barrow (55) is pretty much hooped - mathematically in by the narrowest of margins, and on a seven-match losing streak.
At the other end, Bath (27) is already doomed and the only hope for Kettering (29) is to get that three-point penalty repealed, which I doubt will happen. Darlington (31) are a little better off right now with a game in hand, but they look like they're gonna be wound up at season's end anyway
so it doesn't really matter. Which brings us to the only team that looks like it has a shot of surviving the dreaded red - Hayes & Yeading (38), who are four clear of Telford, Lincoln, and Newport (all 42) and six clear of Stockport (44). Tamworth (46) and Ebbsfleet (49) are in marginal danger.
CONFERENCE NORTHWell, the schedule's been almost normalised (only Droylsden and Histon have a single game in hand), and Hyde (80) is still on top, but their lead has evaporated to just two points over Guiseley (78), who have both a six game win streak and an eight-game unbeaten streak (7W 1D) going, including a 1-0 win over Hyde! Nuneaton (70) is still in the same place relative to Hyde that they were last update - ten back - and they have red-hot Gainsborough (67, 4-game win streak, won five of their last seven) right behind them. Trinity leap-frogged both Halifax (64) and Stalybridge (65) into the playoff spot, but by no means is this set in stone.
Speaking of up-and-comers, where the heck did Worcester (63) come from? They were mid-table madness last update, looking like going nowhere, and now here they are challenging for a playoff spot, six points ahead of rapidly receding Altrincham (57) - HAHA! Suck it Failtrincham!
Seriously, they've only won one of their last six, are on a two game losing streak, their next match is against white-hot Guiseley, and three of their last four are against teams that are ahead of them, the Guiseley match included. Someone needs to rescue league-leading goalscorer Damian Reeves from that cesspool.
On another note, Boston United (53) are basically out - a point for Stalybridge or a win for either Halifax or Worcester will eliminate them.
Other end - the only three points Altrincham has in the bag are those they'll get against sad-sack Eastwood (20) who have only won once
in all of 2012 (1W 4D 11L) - and it was, strangely enough, against Guiseley! They currently are riding a seven-game losing streak. Not only are
they out, though - so too are Blyth Spartans (30). It seems both teams have basically given up on the season. Not the case with highest-red-zoner Histon (42) though. They are only two points out, with a game in hand. Moreover, if they
win that game in hand, that means the points bar for guaranteed safety is 56 - one less than Altrincham has now, bugger it all anyway
- effectively meaning that
half the friggin' table is still in danger of relegation, ranging from marginal danger (Boston would be 9 clear) to extreme danger (even now there are five teams within less than two wins of Histon). Here's a closer look:
11. Gloucester City - 49
12. Colwyn Bay - 48
13. Solihull - 47 (-6)
14. Hinckley - 47 (-9)
15. Corby - 46 (-3)
16. Bishop's Stortford - 46 (-14)
17. Harrogate - 46 (-15)
18. Workington - 44 (-8)
19. Vauxhall - 44 (-12, they would go under if Histon won their game in hand)
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20. Histon - 42
Close stuff, should make for some great football!
CONFERENCE SOUTHSo Woking (87) is still on top, now by seven over a Dartford side (80) that doesn't have a game in hand they did last time. Things are looking up! The stair-step descent of points means that 1. 3rd-place Welling (74) can't catch Woking for top 2. That 6th-placed Dover (61) can't catch Welling, so Welling has clinched their playoff spot. Sutton (68) is starting to pull away from Dover as well, but are riding a four-game winless streak. The real playoff battle should be between Chelmsford (63), Dover, and Basingstoke (58), who only just lost a four-game win streak/five-game unbeaten streak by losing to first-place Woking. Dover is also not on form right now, having just come out of a 3-game losing streak in which they failed to score a single goal, by beating Tonbridge 3-2. To make matters even more complicated for Dover, Basingstoke has a game in hand! And it's against last-place Thurrock!
This is not to discount Dorchester (55), Boreham Wood (54), and Tonbridge Angels (53), all of whom have an outside shot at getting in to the playoffs.
At the other end, Thurrock (25) is boned, but otherwise it is quite close. Weston-super-Mare (48) finally shook the losing streak with a four-points-in-two-games stretch back in mid-March, but went on another losing streak which only ended last match with a draw against Salisbury. In short, they're still in some danger, but the danger is marginal, so they, and Eastleigh (49), will be left off the following table:
13. *Salisbury - 45 (-4)
14. Farnborough - 45 (-23)
15. Truro - 43
16. Eastbourne - 42
17. Bromley - 40
18. *Hampton & Richmond - 39 (-11)
19. Maidenhead - 39 (-24)
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20. *Havant & Waterlooville - 38 (-10)
21. Staines - 37
* - has game in hand
Maidenhead is really in a pickle at the moment. I've included goal differential to show that, even if H&W get a
draw in their game in hand, into the red goes Maidenhead. A win, of course, is preferable and would leap-frog them into 17th. The most exciting football is going to be in amongst the lower table clubs, for obvious reasons.
FEEDERS UPDATENorthern Premier - Chester (90) is a single point (or a Northwich Victoria loss or draw) from clinching first-place.
Southern Premier - Brackley (75) is tops, but theoretically any of the other playoff teams - Chesham (69, +24), Oxford City (69, +23, game in hand), Totton (67), and Cambridge City (65) can still catch them.
Isthmian Premier - In theory, Lowestoft (70) and Bury Town (68) can catch Billericay (80) for first. In practice, it looks far more likely that Hornchurch (78) will.