Haven't done one of these in yonks.
That changes now.
CHAMPIONSHIPIt's really close up top, with just two matches left for the vast majority of the league (Rotherham and Reading have a third left on top). Watford (85) has a point's lead on Bournemouth and Middlesbrough (both 84; Bournemouth has superior goal diff) and three points on Norwich (82). All are assured at least a playoff spot, but it's those two automatic promotion spots and the League championship proper that everyone has their eyes on. Tomorrow (or later today in your timezone
) we might see something go down, although all four of these teams have easy-looking matches based on season form of said opponents:
Watford vs. Brighton & Hove (46) - note: if B&H defy the odds and get a point out of this, they can't be relegated.
Middlesbrough vs. Fulham (49)
Bournemouth vs. Bolton (51) - note: this is on Monday
Norwich vs. Rotherham (44)
The remaining playoff spots are a battle - four teams vying for two spots:
5. Derby County - 76
6. Ipswich Town - 75
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7. Brentford - 72, +14
8. Wolverhampton - 72, +11
Of the four, only Ipswich has an opponent in the upper half of the table tomorrow/today, as they play 11th-place Nottingham Forest (59).
The other end is quickly tightening up as it always does this time of the season. The real match to watch is Norwich vs. Rotherham since Rotherham could all but end any hope of survival for both Wigan (39) and Millwall (40) with a win. Actually, if Brighton and Hove gets any points from their match with Watford and Rotherham wins, it's curtains for Wigan and, should they lose, Millwall, anyway. Of course, if either of these lose, they're done-diddly-doodly-done for.
But here's a further point of complication. Who are they playing? Wigan's against Wolverhampton, and Millwall's against Derby. Not exactly the best odds.
Blackpool (25)? They've given up already.
If a Yank were to coach them (or even a 'Nucker like me), here's what he'd sound like:
"PLAYOFFS? I just hope we can win a game!"LEAGUE ONEWe already know that Bristol Rovers (93) is going to be in the Championship next season - heck, they've clinched the League One title already! So the question is, who's joining them automatically? Preston North End (86) or Milton Keynes (85)? Honestly, I like neither club, but PNE is, at this point, the lesser of two evils for me.
There's also an outside chance for Swindon (77) who has three matches to go, but if STFC drops even one point from their remaining matches, it's curtains for their chances. They play PNE tomorrow/today.
Out of the teams outside and looking in on the playoffs, only Rochdale (63) has a chance, and they
must win both of their remaining matches and hope one of Sheff U (69) and Chesterfield (68) drops a sufficient number of points - in the former teams' case all of them - to make the playoffs. To make matters more difficult, RAFC's next match is against MK Dons, who are trying to eliminate all chance of Swindon catching them and get a leg up on PNE.
At the other end, only Yeovil (40) is eliminated, and they haven't done too poorly for a dead-last-placed team, if you think about it. The other three red-zoners, though, are still alive, and it's going to be an interesting stretch run:
16. Sc*nthorpe U - 53
17. Coventry City - 52
18. Port Vale - 51
19. Crawley Town - 50
20. Crewe - 49
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21. Leyton Orient - 47, -10
22. Notts County - 47, -17
23. Colchester U - 45*
*-game in hand
Now, Colchester may have that game in hand, but guess who they have to play to make it up? Swindon. Just two days prior (tomorrow/today), they have to play 8th-place Fleetwood (60). I don't exactly call those great odds, but given the relatively small points difference between the two considering where they are in the table, it could be worse. Still, it's going to be a very close finish. I can't see Sc*nthorpe being in danger for too much longer unless they
really blow it. Crewe and Crawley, with disproportionally rotten goal differentials, are in much greater danger, in my view. (At -33, Crewe could possibly finish last in the league in goal differential as they are only a single goal against better than Yeovil at this point!
)
LEAGUE TWOAt this point there are a bunch of small battles, and much of the table isn't involved in any one of them.
The first battle is for the League Two title. Burton (88) has a leg up and also has clinched automatic promotion, something second-place Shrewsbury (86) can do with a win or a loss for either of Wycombe or Southend U (both 81). The second battle overlaps slightly, as it is still theoretically possible for Shrewsbury to drop out of auto-promo should they lose both remaining matches. But with one of the Shrews' last matches being against red-zoners Cheltenham (40; the match is today/tomorrow), I think this scenario is improbable at best. So that leaves Wycombe, Southend, and also fifth-place Bury (79), to battle for the third and final auto-promo slot. All three are guaranteed playoffs.
Which brings us to the third battle. The playoff race. Stevenage (69) looks likely to make the playoffs as Luton (65), the first team on the outside looking in, plays a red-hot Southend team that has won six in a row and gone a seventh on top without losing. A loss for either Luton or Plymouth (also 65) would be enough to clinch Stevenage a playoff spot (the latter seems much less likely since they're playing last-place Tranmere, but who knows? Desperation sometimes brings out the best in teams). If both lose, things really get interesting. If Plymouth does win (and this would seem likely), that's itski for Northampton and Exeter (both 61) and the chances of Newport County (62) making it become astronomically improbable as well. A loss opens the door for a world of possibilities in the playoffs, and would perhaps make for more exciting football. In other words, GO TRANMERE!
A Tranmere win would also affect the final battle, the relegation race, which is now down to three teams - red-zoners Cheltenham and Tranmere, and the last team they can catch, Hartlepool (41). It's really hard to call this one. The odds seem stacked against Tranmere, who play first against Plymouth and then against Bury.
CONFERENCE PREMIERTomorrow/today is D-day. Last match of the season!
Barnet (89) and Bristol Rovers (88) have something of a proxy war going, as they don't play each other on closing day, but the winner of the whole deal goes up automatically, while the loser has to settle for playoffs. Here's the scenario outlook:
Both teams with same result - Barnet promoted
Barnet wins, Bristol draws or loses/Barnet draws, Bristol loses - Barnet promoted
Bristol wins, Barnet draws or loses - Bristol promoted
Bristol draws, Barnet loses - Barnet likely still promoted, since their goal differential is considerably superior. Barnet would have to lose by fifteen in this scenario to not still win out!
So yeah.
Grimsby (83) has a playoff spot locked up but can't vye for the title anymore; there is still a bit of a battle for the playoffs, though, between Eastleigh (79), Forest Green (78), and Macclesfield (77), with the last of these on the outside looking in. It's tough to call how this will end up.
Southport (48) and Welling (45) are probably both praying that Bristol Rovers beats Alfreton (45). I think it's kind of unlikely that Alfreton will beat Bristol by the absurd amount necessary for them to catch Southport, but on the other hand, Welling could lose, Alfreton could somehow gut out a draw, and it's bye-bye Welling! Whoever loses that last relegation battle will join Telford, Dartford, and Nuneaton in the lower tier of Conference next season.
CONFERENCE NORTHThe only real battle left up top is between Barrow (84) and Fylde (82) for the auto-promo spot and Conference North title. Yes, it's going right down to the wire. Scenario outlook:
Same result for both teams/Barrow wins regardless of Fylde result: Barrow promoted
Fylde wins, Barrow draws/loses - Fylde promoted
Fylde draws, Barrow loses - Barrow promoted
Simple as that. The playoff picture is already set, with Boston, Chorley, and Guiseley joining whoever loses that championship battle. It's just a matter of jockeying for position at this point.
At the other end, Colwyn Bay (42)
must win and have either Stalybridge or Brackley (both 44) lose to stay up. Both teams have superior goal differential, so a draw for both would be fatal to Colwyn's bid.
CONFERENCE SOUTHEverything's actually set except for playoff positions. Bromley (77) are this year's champs, with Boreham Wood (72), Basingstoke (70, +23), Havant & Waterlooville (70, +21), and Whitehawk (69) in the playoffs. Farnborough (30) and Staines (24) are relegated.
FEEDERSIsthmian LeagueIt is possible, but hugely improbable, for Hendon (92) to catch Maidstone (95), because of the goal differential difference between the two being pretty flipping big.
So it looks more likely that Hendon will have to be in the playoffs. Margate (82) has secured a playoff spot, but Dulwich Hamlet (75) and Enfield (73) have not; both have to keep their eyes on Metropolitan Police (72), and it is even still possible for Grays Athletic (71) to make the playoffs should Enfield and MetroPol both lose.
Southern League I honestly hope Poole Town vs. Corby Town is sold out. Winner take all, draw favours Poole. This is going to be exciting football, if not anywhere near Prems-calibre.
The two clubs come in even on the points (91) but with Poole having a +12 goal differential advantage. The loser drops into the playoffs. Truro (86) has secured a playoff spot as well, but as with the Isthmian League, there's a four-team battle for the other two spots: Hungerford (76), St. Neots (75), Weymouth (73), and Redditch U (72) go into D-Day with the playoffs on the line.
Northern Premier LeagueOf the three feeder leagues, this is the only one where the champion - in this case FC United of Manchester (92) - has already been determined. Workington (87) and Ashton U (84) have clinched playoff spots and await who wins out in the three-team battle between Curzon Ashton (82), Ilkeston (80), and Blyth Spartans (79). I kinda want Ilkeston to win. They're a phoenix club of Ilkeston Town, a team wound up over finances five years ago.