I gotta do this.
CHAMPIONSHIPWe're down to the home stretch - aka the last ten matches of the season, unless you're Charlton who is still catching up on their matches
- and it seems that Leicester (80) is starting to pull away up top, with Burnley (73) well ahead of the playoff bracket. Yes, Leicester is 17 points clear of the playoffs and Burnley 10, so we may yet see David Edgar back in the Prems! Would be good news for longsuffering Canadian football fans.
The top two in the playoffs are Derby and QPR (both 63), with Wigan (59) having pulled themselves up from being lower-mid-table earlier this season to being fifth, and Nottingham Forest (57) with their eyes on Reading and Brighton & Hove (both 56), possessing the last playoff spot and all.
While nobody's mathematically out of the running yet, the only other teams I could see getting up into the playoff contender area based on points and/or form are Ipswich (51), Blackburn (49), Watford (48), and maybe Bournemouth (46).
The other end is much closer. You've got four teams vying for one spot, too, which will make the relegation battle even more interesting, barring a collapse or an epic run of form. Both Charlton, the lowest team out of the red, and Millwall, the top team in it, have the same number of points, 32, but Millwall has a crapton of catching up to do in goal differential if they want to survive and fight another season,
and Charlton has three games in hand on both them and the teams immediately ahead of them, Donny Rovers and Birmingham (both 37). It'll be interesting to see if any of the current red-zoners can pull themselves to safety. But not all is doom and gloom. CAFC's next two matches are against Burnley and Nott Forest. Burnley will probably run rout over them, and Forest has as much incentive to play their arses off as Charlton does, for entirely different reasons.
Yeovil (30) and Barnsley (29) aren't at all far behind, either, so like I said, it's gonna be interesting. May the best team stay afloat!
LEAGUE ONEMuch closer up top, although the schedule right now is batcrap insane, with the number of games played mostly varying between 35-37, and Crawley only having played 33.
Anyway, Wolverhampton (77), Brentford (76), and Leyton Orient (74) are the front-runners for automatic promotion, but I wouldn't write off Preston North End (69) or Rotherham (66) just yet. Peterborough (58) on the other hand, not sure they'll be able to pull off a rise like that. And they're six points ahead of the closest competition, MK Dons (52), who have a leg up on Walsall (49) and Swindon (48) but also give two games in hand up to on-form Sheffield United (also 48).
Other end is very close as well. Notts County (31) is the only club really lagging behind, and even they are only three back of Shrewsbury (34), six back of Stevenage and Crewe (both 37), and 7 points out of safety. A good run of form for
any red zoner would put them right back in the game. Which should have Carlisle (38), Oldham, and Tranmere (both 39) watching their heinies. In less immediate but still very real danger are Coventry, Bristol City, and Colcs U (all 42).
LEAGUE TWOWell, League Two's about the same as League One. Close up top, close at the bottom. Rochdale (67), Chesterfield (66), and Sc*nthorpe (65) hold down the top three spots, with Fleetwood, Burton (both 61), and Oxford U (59) being within relative striking distance. A ways further back is Plymouth (54), who are probably more likely looking over their shoulders at Southend United (53), and at hard-charging York (52) who are on an eight-game unbeaten streak (6W 2D). I'd argue that Dag & Red, Hartlepool (both 49), Cheltenham (48), and perhaps even Morecambe (47), could make a move on the playoff pack as well, but we'll see.
Much like League One, the team in last place isn't even that far from safety. Torquay (36) are only five behind Exeter (41) and they've won two of their last three. Northampton (38) are only a win away from Exeter. And the bottom half of the table, I'd argue, could all be in some danger of relegation at this point. With only six points separating Northampton from Accrington Stanley and AFC Wimbledon (both 44), with Bristol Rovers, Mansfield (both 43), Bury, Wycombe, and Pompey (all 42) in between, it's going to be a wild finish.
CONFERENCE PREMIERStill messed up down here, but whatever. Luton (77) has a 10-point lead and two games in hand on second-place Alfreton (67). If I were them I'd be more worried about Cambridge (66), who have played the same number of games as them. Nuneaton (61) hold down fourth, and what follows is the mother of all points logjams (games played in parentheses):
4. (38) Nuneaton - 61
5. (37) Kidderminster - 58
---------------------------------------------------------
6. (36) Forest Green - 57, +19
7. (37) Halifax - 57, +17
8. (34) Grimsby - 57, +16
9. (38) Barnet - 57, +5
10. (37) Gateshead - 56
11. (37) Salisbury - 55
12. (39) Lincoln - 53
13. (33) Braintree - 52, +14
14. (37) Welling - 52, +4
Of course, this is only those clubs within six points of a playoff spot. Says nothing about the teams that aren't all that far behind. If you were to look at all the clubs within nine points of a playoff spot, you'd have all but three teams outside the red zone. Seriously.
Hyde (10) hasn't a chance in hell of staying alive at this point. With only eight matches left in their season, even if they were to win all of them they'd still come up six points short of the first team outside, Chester (40). The other three teams, though, are still very much alive. Tamworth (32) and Dartford (34) have some serious work to do if they're going to make it, but Aldershot (38) isn't that far off at all. Actually, if the 'Shots do come out of admins and manage to get their 10-point penalty overturned, they'd probably be in the clear. So they need to keep fighting. Southport (41) and Hereford (42) are also in immediate danger of relegation.
CONFERENCE NORTHScrewy schedules aside, it seems the Conference North has turned into a two-horse race between North Ferriby (69) and Telford (68). But I'd still watch Altrincham (57) because they're a bit behind on their games played. That and Hednesford (59) hit a bump in their form, dropping two matches by a combined scoreline of 7-1, including an embarrassing 3-1 performance against 17th-place Gainsborough Trinity, before coming back with a win over Colwyn Bay.
The playoff spots are pretty tight though. Boston (56) is just one back of Altrincham and Harrogate, as is Brackley (also 56), and Solihull (54), in spite of having the most games played of any club in the league (jointly with Vauxhall Motors), is still an immediate contender. Guiseley (52) is more of a dark horse, but not to be underestimated all the same.
If you looked at the bottom you'd be tempted to go, "well, Workington's screwed!" Except their number of games is considerably lower than the teams they're chasing to stay afloat. Workington (21) and Oxford City (28) have 31 and 30 games played respectively, giving them two and three games in hand respectively on Stalybridge Celtic (31). So it's not as big a gap to close as it might first appear.
Histon (29) is closer, but have played one
more game than Staly Celtic. The only other team I'd say is in immediate danger is Gloucester City (32).
CONFERENCE SOUTHThe top is closer here than in the North, with Eastleigh (67) and Bromley (66) within a point, but hard-charging Sutton (62) looking good as well. They've an 11-game unbeaten streak (9W 2D) and a five-game win streak going at the moment. Ebbsfleet (58) could go into maintenance mode right now as they aren't really in immediate danger of losing their playoff spot, but Dover (53) need to keep their eyes on Bath (50), Eastbourne (49), and Weston-super-Mare (48).
The bottom-end of the table is ridiculously close right now. Three of the four lowest clubs have the same number of points, 29; these are Maidenhead, Gosport, and Whitehawk (Maidenhead is outside the red by goal differential at the moment). In fairness to Gosport, though, they have three games in hand on Maidenhead and Whitehawk, and two in hand on Tonbridge Angels (31) and Hayes and Yeading (33), the other two teams in more immediate danger. Dorchester (26) aren't that far behind in points, but their goal differential is
waaaaaaaaaaaaaay the crap behind.
They're -18 worse than the second-worst team in the league (Tonbridge are an already sketchy -23) and even further behind their fellow red-zoners. SMARTEN UP, CRAZEH FOO'S!
Well, that's it for now.
325 Replies
182916 Views