Getting down to the wire!
CHAMPIONSHIPMost teams have eight matches left. Huddersfield and Wolverhampton have nine.
The gap between front-runners Newcastle (78) and Brighton & Hove (77) and the pack chasing has widened by a single point, so not too much has changed. What
has changed is who is in third - Huddersfield (71) and Leeds (69) have both passed Reading (67), and Hudds may prove to be dangerous because, as I indicated above, they have a game in hand on there rest of the league save lowly Wolverhampton (45).
There's also a gap between Reading and the last playoff spot, currently held by Sheffield Wednesday (62). The last playoff spot is going to be interesting to follow, though, with Fulham (61) hot on their heels, and Norwich and PNE (both 57) both within reasonable distance. There could be some dark-horses from the mid-table, but don't hold your breath.
I'll probably hold off on the "bar of safety" gauges until a couple weeks from now, because the only teams at the moment that
cannot be relegated are the top five in the division. Still, it does look like it'll be a fight at the bottom, but not on account of Rotherham (17), who are all but eliminated already. Seriously. The odds are overwhelmingly against them at this point, as they can only max out at 44 points; if they lose but one more game, they're done-ski. And with a goal differential of -54 and a winless streak (1D 9L) that goes back to mid-January, who could see them going anywhere but down?
Wigan (34) still has a chance at staying afloat, but since they're seven out of safety, they do need to really smarten up if they're going to do so. On the other hand, Blackburn (40) is barely out at all, just one behind Burton Albion, Nott Forest, and Bristol City (all 41). BCFC is an anomaly in particular. They're down near the red, but they have a goal differential of -3. What the crap?
Also, Birmingham, Ipswich, and Wolverhampton (all 45) can't get cocky.
LEAGUE ONEThe scheduling's a bit goofier here, with teams ranging from 36 to 39 matches played.
Sheffield United (78) is really starting to pull away up top, nine clear of Bolton (69) and ten clear of the playoffs - the first spot being held by Fleetwood (68). They do still have to be somewhat wary of Wanderers, as they have played 37 to the Blades' 38, but none of the teams in the playoffs-plus contingent have played fewer than Bolton. That's actually good news for the first team on the outside looking in, Millwall (59), as they've played fewer matches than any of them, being one of three teams (the others being Rochdale and red-zoners Port Vale) to have only played 36 matches.
One has to feel bad for Sc*nthorpe (64), whose cold streak has seen them win just once in their last eleven matches (1W 3D 7L) and slip from top spot two updates ago to fifth now. They've lost five of their last six as well, with their lone reprieve being a 2-1 win over Rochdale (53). Bradford (66) has turned things up a notch, being on a seven-game unbeaten streak (4W 3D). Southend United (60) has countered Millwall's charge with a couple consecutive wins, but to stay in that playoff spot is going to be quite the fight, especially since Millwall hasn't lost a League match since last December. 15-game unbeaten streak. That's right. They have yet to lose in 2017 in league play. If there's any comfort for Southenders, it's that three of their last five matches have been scoreless draws. All it'll take is the right team to come in and snap that streak and Millwall will be playing catchup to a much greater degree. (Plus all this doesn't count the humiliation Spurs handed them in the FA Cup.
) Bristol Rovers (57) and Oxford United (55) are also relatively close.
At the other end, I wonder if Coventry (26) has somewhat given up. Poor buggers can't catch a break; they've only managed one point of a possible eighteen in their last six matches, putting them seventeen points out of safety, and their max-out is only 50 points - just seven more than first-team-out Shrewsbury (43) currently has - so things are looking kinda grim for them. Neither Chesterfield (33) nor Swindon (36) looks great either. Swindon still has some hope, I think, but that hope is fading fast. Both of these two are nurturing four-match winless streaks.
On the flip side, I have to wonder how much longer Port Vale (41) will actually stay in the red. They've only played 36 matches, fewer than the teams immediately surrounding them, and have won two of their last three after snapping a lengthy winless streak. With two games in hand on the team they're chasing (Shrewsbury) and three in hand on the three teams in front - Bury, Gillingham (both 45), and Oldham (44) - they actually have a decent chance of seeing League One action next year...
if they can keep their current form up. MK Dons and Charlton (47) are both somewhat in danger - the latter's fans are rather displeased with their owner as per SY's paper-talk thread and a couple articles I've read related thereto, so that can't be good for morale. While Northampton (49) could be considered in danger, their form has been decent of late, so I think they'll be okay. I might end up wrong, though. Wouldn't be the first time!
LEAGUE TWOSurprisingly, the scheduling is more consistent than in League Two. Teams have played either 38 or 37 matches, except Accrington Stanley, who have only played 36.
And into this context, we bring a Doncaster Rovers (78) team that is seventeen points clear of the first team outside of automatic promotion. At present, the minimum number of points for them to clinch a spot in League One for next season is 87. Three wins in their last eight. That's all they need! But I don't think they'd be content with that - they are in it to win it, having lost just once in 2017 and won four of their last five! Plymouth Argyle (72) is on good form as well, if you disregard the 3-0 blushfest against Blackpool (57) four matches ago.
Portsmouth (65) holds down the last auto-promo spot. Would be nice to see Pompey back on an upswing after all these years of being lower - actually making progress instead of just surviving.
Still, they'll have to hold off the playoff pack, led by Stevenage (61) and Luton (59, only team in the top ten with 37 GP). But the playoff pack has its own problems. Carlisle (also 59), who were contenders for top even at the end of 2016, are now treading water in the playoff group, and in spite of a run of decent form in early February, are now on a six-game winless streak and have just one point in that span, plus their goal differential is now even. Not a good thing when you're surrounded by teams that are double-digits in the black! Although Exeter's (58) form has been better, they are also being pursued by red-hot Blackpool (57), who are on an eight game unbeaten streak. After a bizarre three-match run of 2-2 draws, the last five matches have been pretty solid, seeing them win four out of five and even beat second-place Plymouth!
Mansfield, Wycombe (both 55), Colchester U (54), and Cambridge (53) are also within striking distance, but their form has been patchy of late, although Wycombe is on a five-game unbeaten streak (2W 3D).
At the other end, it isn't that Newport County and Leyton Orient (both 32) haven't been trying. They're the best basement-dwellers in the top four levels of English football, and the closest to safety, being seven behind Cheltenham (39). Newport has a bit of a leg up on Leyton since they have a game in hand, and their more recent form has been better, with the Welsh side managing two wins in their last three matches. But still, they've got enough of a gap that I can say they are going to have a fight staying afloat. If I could call anyone else in danger, I'd say it was Notts County (40) and Hartlepool (41).
NATIONAL LEAGUE PREMIERMore screwy scheduling. I've come to expect it this time of year. Lincoln (72), who are atop the table on goal diffs over Forest Green (also 72), have three games in hand on the same. But at least it provides some interest to have it close for now. It's close in the playoff picture as well (games played in parentheses):
(34) 1. Lincoln - 72, +35
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(37) 2. Forest Green - 72, +32
(35) 3. Tranmere - 67, +20
(37) 4. Dag & Red - 67, +19
(38) 5. Gateshead - 65
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(37) 6. Dover - 63
(38) 7. Aldershot - 62
(37) 8. Barrow - 61
(34) 9. Macclesfield - 54
The
only reason I included Macclesfield is because of the number of games in hand they have on everyone else. Were they to make up those games in hand with wins, they'd be right up in the thick of it. But as you can see from the above mini-table, it is very close in the upper and upper-mid table.
It's also close at the bottom. Last-place Southport (31) is still alive, but their form is fading. On the other hand, North Ferriby U (33) has picked up their game a bit, with a couple recent wins - they are still six points from safety, but that could easily be made up. Same can be said of York (also 33), and they have games in hand to work with, too. Woking (38) is sitting just out of safety, behind Torquay (39) and a Maidstone team that a Maidstone (40) team that has won three of its last five, in the midst of a five-match unbeaten streak.
Hard to say if anyone else will slip into the danger area. Sutton (44) might be a candidate if they don't start winning.
CONFERENCE NORTHThere are two things at the bottom that worry me. One - Altrincham (17) have mustered some form. They're still dead-last, but still. 2W 2D 2L in their last six matches isn't terrible form at all... and I WANT Altrincham to lose!
The other thing is, what the crap is up with Stalybridge Celtic (19)? Pitch troubles or something? They've only played 31 matches, whereas most teams have played 34 (inlcuding Altrincham). Whatever. Both teams are still double digits from safety. Gainsborough and Worcester (both 30) are on opposite sides of the line of safety, with Worcester being ten goals ahead of them in differential. Bradford Park Avenue and Telford (both 34) aren't looking great, either.
Fylde (74) has increased its margin of lead to eleven over Salford and game-in-hand Kidderminster (both 63), although the Harriers have seen a dip in form. Chorley (62) is looking decent as well, and Darlington (60) is prolonging its unbeaten streak (four games currently) trying to stay ahead of Stockport (59), Halifax (58), and even Tamworth (56) for that last playoff spot. Harrogate (54), Gloucester (53), and Brackley (52) are dark horses.
CONFERENCE SOUTHAnd now the lead is only one, but Maidenhead (77) are hanging on for dear life! Ebbsfleet (77) is on the mother of all hot streaks at the moment, having dropped just two points of a possible 36 in 2017 (11W 1D), and while Maidenhead hasn't exactly been bad, it's those little slips, like getting a draw instead of a win, that have made the gap between the two close.
The good news is, they're both going increasingly clear of third-place Dartford (68) and are practically a lock for at least the playoffs. Chelmsford (63) and Poole (60) hold down the other two playoff spots, while Hungerford (57) and Hampton & Richmond (55) are the best bets on the outside at the moment. Bath and Wealdstone (both 53) are potential dark-horse teams.
On the other end, the red-zone teams are fading fast. Gosport (28) only recently snapped a winless streak going back to the
end of last October but by the time they had, Whitehawk (33), who at one point were behind them, had pulled into safety, having won three of their last five. It's Whitehawk, and also Truro (also 33), that are the main targets for the red-zoners at the moment, but Gosport, Bishop's Stortford (24), and especially Margate (20) are really tanking it. In fairness to Margate, though, at least they finally snapped the losing streak!
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