The run-in - an analysis

[Holtspur]

After the Chavski/City game it looks very much like 4th (do I recall someone saying we were in with a shout for 3rd after the Wolves game lol) is down to us and City unless of course Liverpool dont drop points and continue their charge.

Here's the comparison (with Liverpool as we shouldn't under estimate the threat):

Spurs: Wigan (A) Stoke (H) Ars*nal (H) West Brom (H) Chavs (A) Blackpool (H) Liverpool (A) Brum (H) City (A)
    - 5 home games (1 against top 6) and 4 away (3 against top 6)

City: Sunderland (H) Liverpool (A) Blackburn (A) West Ham (H) Everton (A) Stoke (H) Bolton (A) Spurs (H)
     - 4 home games (1 against top 6 - us!) and 4 away (1 against top 6)

Liverpool: West Brom (A) City (H) Ars*nal (A) Brum (H) Newcastle (H) Fulham (A) Spurs (H) Villa (A)
      - 4 home (2 against top 6) and 4 away (1 against top 6)

Spurs, City and Liverpool all have to play each other. Unfortunately for us, we are away to both of them. Liverpool aslso host City. The league table says that we have to beat City away and win one more game than them, then at least match them whilst not dropping stupid points that would allow the Scousers in.

We have the toughest away programme. Its about time we get results to go our way now. The run in is a bit like last season - Fasten your seat belts guys! Lets hope we don't need the sick bags!

[bigv]

Excellent thread. Interesting stuff. I reckon city have a harder run in then us and if we can somehow get our strikers to start scoring and finish teams off we still have a chance. Only problem is I dont think Harry is capable of this. He has had an entire season with 4 international strikers with excellent records for their countries and he cant get them to gel and produce goals in the league. This will be key. City are having a blip and we need to capitalise. We could be in 3rd or higher this season if our strikers were doing the business. I totally agree with you that Liverpool are not to be discounted either.

[Holtspur]

Thanks V - nice to have someone agree with me for once!    Yes, City seem to be having isuues on and off the pitch. If Defoe & Co can do what they are paid ridiculous sums for, we would be high and dry by now - I recall Harry saying his mother-in-law could have done better than Darren Bent a while ago, but he seems afraid to say anythig like that now. Once upon a time it was the defence letteing us down - we could score but leaked like hell; now its the other away around. Lets hope things improve. Interesting that you think City have a tougher run-in and thansk for the compliment - much appreciated! 

[Shameus]

(1) If we play like we did against WHU we  will get 4th. Yeah I know about the goals problem, but we looked composed, created bags of chances, and it was obvious we believed we could win it right up to the last kick - and that's good.

(2) Try not to fall into the 'Harry's fault' trap. We have had a great season already and SPURS are back big time on the European radar.

[aspursfan]

Yea, good thread, holt.

You can't write us off after how we ended last season. Although It's not the teams at the top of the table I worry about these days. It's the frustrating results like Wigan, West Ham, Wolves, Blackpool, etc. I think I'd rather play our remaining games against only United, City, Ars*nal and Chelsea. It's bizarre!

[aspursfan]

Excellent thread. Interesting stuff. I reckon city have a harder run in then us and if we can somehow get our strikers to start scoring and finish teams off we still have a chance. Only problem is I dont think Harry is capable of this. He has had an entire season with 4 international strikers with excellent records for their countries and he cant get them to gel and produce goals in the league. This will be key. City are having a blip and we need to capitalise. We could be in 3rd or higher this season if our strikers were doing the business. I totally agree with you that Liverpool are not to be discounted either.

I'm not sure if anyone could get our strikers to gel.  They're so unpredictable. It must be even more frustrating for Redknapp. Pav and Defoe linked up pretty well when Pav came on against WH. Other games when they play together it's a disaster. Last season we broke a record for the number of different players from a team to score and this season we broke the record for chances on goal without scoring. In the current season many of our important goals have been from MF and our defenders. Like the fantastic Ars*nal comeback and Kranjcars goals. Imagine if we could add a striker who is on fire to that.

[Derry-Yid]

After the Chavski/City game it looks very much like 4th (do I recall someone saying we were in with a shout for 3rd after the Wolves game lol) is down to us and City unless of course Liverpool dont drop points and continue their charge.

Here's the comparison (with Liverpool as we shouldn't under estimate the threat):

Spurs: Wigan (A) Stoke (H) Ars*nal (H) West Brom (H) Chavs (A) Blackpool (H) Liverpool (A) Brum (H) City (A)
    - 5 home games (1 against top 6) and 4 away (3 against top 6)

City: Sunderland (H) Liverpool (A) Blackburn (A) West Ham (H) Everton (A) Stoke (H) Bolton (A) Spurs (H)
     - 4 home games (1 against top 6 - us!) and 4 away (1 against top 6)

Liverpool: West Brom (A) City (H) Ars*nal (A) Brum (H) Newcastle (H) Fulham (A) Spurs (H) Villa (A)
      - 4 home (2 against top 6) and 4 away (1 against top 6)

Spurs, City and Liverpool all have to play each other. Unfortunately for us, we are away to both of them. Liverpool aslso host City. The league table says that we have to beat City away and win one more game than them, then at least match them whilst not dropping stupid points that would allow the Scousers in.

We have the toughest away programme. Its about time we get results to go our way now. The run in is a bit like last season - Fasten your seat belts guys! Lets hope we don't need the sick bags!

You have fairly changed your tune.....the other day it was the end of the yellow brick road, now today its the start of the 'run in' road...exciting times ahead...bring it on.

BELIEVE

YID ARMY

COYS

[Lowestoft Yid]

Let's hope none of the players pick up injury's playing for there country's in the next week or so, It would be alot more difficult with Dawson etc missing

[Holtspur]

Maybe its best that none of them get picked! We cant afford any to go down again after the injuries we have had all season

[millers-tach]

We are a much better counter attacking team hence it is better for us to be playing the tougher teams.
 
That said i dont think anyone can legislate for the poor finishing/luck on saturday and Green deciding to have a good game, you would think he could have allowed in at least one howler to help us out.

[Holtspur]

We are a much better counter attacking team hence it is better for us to be playing the tougher teams.
 
That said i dont think anyone can legislate for the poor finishing/luck on saturday and Green deciding to have a good game, you would think he could have allowed in at least one howler to help us out.

Lol yes, especially as he had a blinder that denied us at Upton Park back in September as well.

[dimexi]

I think this is going to be very close and if we are to pull it off we are going to need to be far more clinical than we have been at late. So let’s for arguments sake assume that we have put to bed our lack of form in front of goal and we return to our free scoring best, whilst also assuming that Liverpool and Man City will do the same.
Obviously it will not be this straightforward as football is not like that, especially at Spurs, but...

Liverpool: To win against W.B, M.C, Brum, Newc, Ful, & Villa = 18, plus any points gained from the Woolwich game. TOTAL = 63 points
I know they are improving but I cannot see them Challenging. (Watch out next year tho )

Man City: Win against Sun, Black, W.H, Eve, Sto, & Bol (Losing to Liv & us crucial games) = 18 points, TOTAL = 71 points, although this could be 74 with a win against Liv but still losing to us.

Spurs: To win against Wig, Sto, W.B, Blkpool, Brum, City & Liv (crucial) = 21 points, sub-total = 70 points, therefore we need 2 points from Ars & Che as Man C have a better goal difference. (It would be painful but ironic if we lost out due to not scoring enough goals) OR we will need 5 points which means winning both if Manc win at Liv.

Like I said, it will not be this predictable but it does highlight how much we have to do ourselves, we basically need to go unbeaten for the rest of the season to make it very difficult for Man C to miss out. It is possible, but if we do not find our scoring boots, we will have to rely on others bottling it.

[aspursfan]

If only we'd taken advantage of a few of the occasions where those other teams did bottle it this season. I suppose that wouldn't be the Spurs way though. Hopefully City use Balotelli in their remaining games. I think opponents know who to wind up now 

I think you're right about Liverpool. This season I think they can win, but also lose to anyone. Kind of like us.

The final games in this season should be fantastic.

[Holtspur]

Just been annoinced that the City game is on Tuesday 10th May - just before the game at Anfield. Crucial or what!! But exciting! 

[millers-tach]

Has anyone read a reason why the game is moved? Too lazy to search myself 
 
Looks like it is for Sky to enjoy a top 4 playoff right at the end of the season just like last year or am i being too cynical?