Update Time! Going into the new year:
CHAMPIONSHIP Most clubs have played 25 matches, but four (Watford, Brighton & Hove, Blackburn, and Bristol City) have only played 24, undoubtedly due to postponements.
Cardiff (53) hold a reasonable lead now, five ahead of Hull City (48) and six ahead of resurgent Middlesbrough (47). Here I was thinking Crystal Palace (44) would be able to keep pace, but apparently not; they have only won once since the loss to Leeds United I mentioned last update, going 1-5-1 in their last seven matches. Leicester (41) has also slipped, having just snapped a four-game winless streak with a victory over Burnley (33). But they're still in playoff position.
One team that has had a solid run over the last six matches, though, is Watford (40), who have gleaned 13 points of a possible 18 since last update. If not for their recent postponement they could have made that 16 for 21 against Bristol City (22), but oh well, a 4-1-1 record in the last six is nothing to sneeze at, amirite?
The playoff race has loosened up a lot since last update; it seems that only Nottingham Forest and Millwall (both 37) were able to keep up their pace that well. A couple of the teams that were right up there slipped quite considerably. One should note that Blackburn (32) did have a match postponed against Brighton & Hove, so they at least have an excuse for some points ungained. But Huddersfield (also 32) has no such excuse. On the bright side, Leeds (35) has come out of nowhere (read: mid-table madness) to make a push for the playoffs. Brighton & Hove and Derby County (both 34) round out the "within six" contingent.
At the other end, things have gotten closer between those in immediate danger, but one particular club exploded out of the red and have gone from being worst early in the year to sitting eight points outside the red. Yes, I'm talking about Ipswich (30), who are 5-1-1 in their last seven matches, with their only loss coming against Leeds. They flew past Birmingham (29) who took 9 from 21 - not exactly great numbers but better than those poor saps behind them
- to sit seven clear of danger, a whole point better off than they were before. Whee.
Sheffield Wednesday (25) is in more immediate danger, only three points out of danger and four ahead of last place:
21. Sheff W - 25
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22. Bristol City - 22 (GAME IN HAND)
23. Peterborough United - 22
24. Barnsley - 21
The scary thing for Sheff-Dubya is, if Bristol City somehow won its postponed match against Watford, they'd be in the red on goal differential - Bristol City is -11 while Sheff W is -12.
LEAGUE ONE Scheduling's a bit more cockeyed in League One due to more postponements. But in spite of this, things are really tight up top - two auto-promo spots and four teams within two points fighting for them!
1. Tranmere (25 GP) - 47
2. Sheff U (25 GP) - 46, +15
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3. Doncaster (24 GP) - 46, +14
4. Brentford (24 GP) - 45
Now Brentford is on a solid run of form in league play, going eleven League One matches without losing (8W 3D), and just recently had a 4-game win streak snapped by a scoreless draw at Shrewsbury. You know who else is on scorching form of late? Bournemouth (41). They haven't lost a League One match since early October, going 10-3-0 in that stretch and hoisting themselves from 10th to 5th in the space of a month. They're on their second four-game win streak within this unbeaten streak, too - this one might actually continue! Good for them.
Swindon (39, +19) holds down the final playoff spot by goal differential over MK Dons (39, +11), who did the reverse of Bournemouth and fell five places in the rankings, from 2nd to 7th after losing three of their last four since last update. Yeah, they done derped hard!
But they are still within easy reach of the playoffs should they decide to turn things around. Problem is, they have all those other clubs to deal with:
6. Swindon - 39, +19
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7. MK Dons - 39, +11
8. Crawley - 38
9. Coventry - 37, +11
10. Stevenage - 37, -1
11. Notts County - 36, +11
12. Yeovil - 36, E, 38 GF
13. Crewe - 36, E, 31 GF
Uhh... yeah, that's pretty tight stuff there. With some disproportionate gaps between teams in goal differential, a win could send a high differential team soaring and a loss could send a low differential team plummeting.
The other end is close as well. The red zone plus the "within six" lot equal seven teams total:
18. Oldham - 26 (and are on a 4-game losing streak)
19. Shrewsbury - 25 (five games unbeaten; four of them are draws
FINISH THE JOB!)
20. Colchester - 23
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21. Pompey - 21 (-8)
22. Bury - 21 (-14)
23. Sc*nthorpe - 20
24. Hartlepool - 12
Now how's this for embarrassing? Sheffield United could be top now except they somehow managed to lose against the league's worst team, giving said team their first win since
September the flipping 1st!
That's right, Hartlepool actually won a match, against the second-best team in the league, who could have been the best, period. DERP. That said, Hartlepool hasn't even had the worst form of late. That title belongs to Colchester United. They've lost nine of their last ten and six in a row. Although Hartlepool's streak is longer, in the last six matches Hartlepool has gleaned exactly one more point than Colcs. I wonder what's gonna happen when these two meet. Probably the Derby of SUCKAGE. With form like that, they should be in the red in no time given that Portsmouth and Sc*nthorpe both have games in hand on them. However, Bury has only gleaned three points,
and they haven't won, in their last seven games.
LEAGUE TWO
Even more mangled scheduling
Port Vale (46) and Gillingham (45) are neck and neck atop the league with Cheltenham (42) not too far behind. While trying to keep pace with the front two, Cheltenham are also trying to beat back Southend and Rotherham (both 40), and to a lesser extent Bradford and Burton (both 39). Ever-surprising Fleetwood (37) are within three points of fourth place as well, so they're still very much in it, and they have an outside shot of winning the whole shebang. Chesterfield, Rochdale (both 36), Exeter City (35), and one could even argue, Northampton and Torquay (both 33), are within striking distance of the playoffs. (Those last two have only played 23 matches while some ahead of them have played 25 and most have played at least 24.)
The other end is tough to call. The two teams in the red, Bristol Rovers and AFC Wimbledon (both 19) have only played 23 matches, while the first team out of the red, Aldershot (22) has played 24, and Accrington Stanley (27), Plymouth (24), and Barnet (23) have all played 25. These latter three are at a marked disadvantage because they have played more games than anyone else in the lower half of the table.
After a rough start, Wycombe (29) seem to be getting their acts together. They've gone from being two points clear of the danger area to ten, having won five of their last eight (5-1-2). They aren't out of danger completely just yet but they're out of more immediate danger. A slip by Morecambe (28) has also put another club between them and the red zone. So who knows?
In any case, I'm expecting the revolving door to continue.
CONFERENCE PREMIER More screwball scheduling. Numbers of games played vary from 25 (Dartford and Tamworth) to 21 (Mansfield and Hereford). So who's going to end up where is anyone's guess.
That said, going purely by points, the top rung of Conference is close. Grimsby (46) holds a narrow lead on Newport County (45) and Wrexham (43) - wouldn't it be something if both Welsh clubs got into the League for next season?
Luton's (39) games in hand, and Kidderminster's (38, +13) red-hot form (7-game Conference win streak and 9-game Conference unbeaten streak) are also factors that cannot be overlooked. Forest Green (38, +11) is a bit more of an outside shot due to a dip in form but they are by no means out of the hunt, and Dartford (37) is doing quite good as well. While I wouldn't count Cambridge or Hyde (both 32) as immediate playoff threats, I'd keep my eyes on Mansfield (also 32) because of the fact they've only played 21 matches and only Luton has played fewer than 23 out of the teams ahead of them. Hereford (DEM COWS, also 29
) are more of an outside shot in the same vein as Cambridge U or Hyde, but their games in hand could come in quite handy (pun not intended) later in the season, especially if they find good form.
If they find
bad form, though, they could find themselves in a bad place in a real hurry. I would go so far as to say perhaps the entire bottom half of the table is in immediate danger (games played in parentheses):
13. (23) Lincoln - 30
14. (21) Hereford (DEM COWS) - 29, -2
15. (22) Alfreton - 29, -8
16. (24) Woking - 29, -13
17. (25) Tamworth - 28
18. (23) Southport - 27
19. (23) Telford - 26, -1
20. (22) Braintree - 26, -12
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21. (23) Stockport - 25
22. (24) Nuneaton - 24
23. (23) Ebbsfleet - 22
24. (22) Barrow - 20
Inversely, I can also say that no red-zoner is completely doomed just yet. Even last-place Barrow is a few wins and/or a few strategic derps from other clubs away from safety. Even Barrow can get off of bottom by making up a game in hand. Should be fun to watch in the latter half of the season.
CONFERENCE NORTH There is seldom a league this time of year that can compare in screwiness of schedules to the Conference North. But at this point it seems obvious that Chester is the team to beat. Not only have they only lost once, 3-2 to Boston back in September, but they have only missed winning
twice. Yes, they've only dropped five points all season - 61 points from a possible 66, putting them a massive 15 points ahead of second-place Guiseley (46). Guiseley and Brackley (40) seem to be in their own little niche as well, although Halifax (32) has only played fifteen matches (four fewer than both and seven fewer than Chester), so this could change once the postponements are made up. Gainsborough Trinity (also 32) rounds out the playoffs, with a run of clubs within two wins of the playoffs:
4. Halifax - 32, +22
5. Gainsborough T. - 32, +12
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6. Bradford Park Avenue - 31
7. Worcester City - 30
8. Boston U - 29
9. Oxford City - 28, +5
10. Stalybridge - 28, -5
11. Altrincham - 27, +12
12. Workington - 27, -6
13. Solihull, 25
14. Harrogate, 24
Now I don't really think Solihull is a contender, but Harrogate has games in hand,
and a winning record. With a +11 differential they are the only team in the lower half of the table with a positive goal differential. They could do something.
Now at the other end, Hinckley lost all three of their points this season, getting dinged for failing to pay creditors. So they now have zero points. Nothing. Zip, zilch, nada, nolla, JACK FLIPPIN' SQUAT! To make matters worse, they aren't even halfway through the season yet and they have a goal diff of -59. I think it's enough to say they they are pretty much boned.
This leaves Histon (12) and Droylsden (15) still able to claw back up into safety, but the issue here is that Bishop's Stortford (18) has two games in hand on the former and three on the latter. Colwyn Bay (20) and Corby Town (21) are also in a bit of danger, but they too have played fewer matches than the red-zoners that can actually do something without a miracle.
CONFERENCE SOUTH Conference South is closer at both ends of the table. There are three teams running away from the rest of the league up top but are neck-and-neck with each other - these are Salisbury (42), Welling (40, +21), and Dover (40, +17). The dropoff from 3rd to 4th is nine points, into another points cluster where four teams are fighting for two playoff spots:
4. Boreham Wood - 31
5. Farnborough - 30, +7
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6. Chelmsford - 30, +3
7. Weston-Super-Mare - 30, +1
That's right, three teams separated only by goal diff. Can't get much closer than that. Other outside shots for the playoffs at this point include Hornchurch (26), whose bid might be hampered by the fact that they've played more matches than anybody else in the league (apart from Staines who have played the same number), Maidenhead (25, +8), and Hayes & Yeading (25, -1). There's just one problem. 25 points is only three points out of the red. No baloney. So that means everyone from ninth down is in
immediate danger. If anyone could break out of it, ironically enough, it's the team that is first in the red, Dorchester (22, -7). Why? Games in hand. LOTS of games in hand. Anywhere from three to seven depending on the team in question. If they were to win the four games in hand they had on every playoff contender (in some cases they have more!) they would be in fourth place just like that.
The only team lagging behind the pack a little is Basingstoke (18 ), who would be ahead of Truro (8 ) only on goal diff if not for that club's administration and ten-point penalty. And even Basingstoke is not out of hope. This season's home stretch is gonna be a real cracker, to steal a line from Andy Gray. (FIFA 64
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