Update time!
CHAMPIONSHIPWith the exception of Millwall and Crystal Palace, every team has a single match left. These two make up a match on Tuesday.
Hull (78) blew their chance to secure automatic promotion something fierce by dropping a 2-0 decision to red-zoners Barnsley (54). Now they absolutely
have to win to stay in that auto-promo spot. A draw, and Watford (77) could catch them with a win. A loss, and Watford - who have far superior goal differential - could catch them with a draw. To compound the difficulties, Hull's closer is against champions Cardiff (86), while Watford has Leeds (58).
The other upper-end battles will depend on what Crystal Palace does with its Millwall (55) match. Both teams have something to lose in this match, and a draw would benefit neither side. If Crystal Palace loses, they are under more pressure to beat Peterborough (54) on closing day to simply stay in the playoffs, since they'd have to fend off Nottingham Forest, Bolton (both 67), and Leicester (65, but with an absurdly high goal differential). If they win, they can challenge Brighton & Hove for home-pitch advantage and they're in the playoffs regardless of what any of those teams do.
This one Tuesday match has ramifications at the other end as well. If Millwall wins, they're free from danger of relegation. If they lose - since their numbers currently are identical with those of Sheffield Wednesday in every statistic except losses - they had better hope that Peterborough and Barnsley don't both win, or at least they need to beat Derby (58).
So here are the upcoming important matches:
Tuesday:
Crystal Palace vs. Barnsley (already explained this)
Next Saturday:
Watford vs. Leeds United - Watford still has a shot at automatic promotion
Nottingham Forest vs. Leicester City - six-pointer. The winner is in the playoffs if Bolton loses. A draw would put Nottingham in if Bolton loses. If Bolton draws, a Forest win would be sufficient.
Sheffield Wednesday vs. Middlesbrough - Sheff W needs a win to guarantee Championship football for next season.
Huddersfield Town vs. Barnsley - Barnsley needs to win this to get out of the red. Huddersfield can put themselves out of danger just by drawing. If they lose and the three other teams behind them (Millwall, Sheff W, Peterborough) all win, they are relegated because of their abysmal goal differential.
Bolton Wanderers vs. Blackpool - A Bolton win would be sufficient to secure them a playoff spot unless Nottingham Forest were somehow to win by six.
Hull City vs. Cardiff City - If Hull wins, they secure automatic promotion. If they do anything less, Watford can pass them with a win. If they lose, Watford can pass them with a draw.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers - Brighton can lock up third place with a win, unless Crystal Palace loses to Millwall in which case they would have it already.
Wolves still have an ever-so-slight chance of staying afloat - they have to win by five and hope Peterborough and Barnsley both lose.
Millwall vs. Derby County - the importance of this match is derived from the result of the Tuesday match. It only matters what Millwall does in this game, if they lose or draw against Crystal Palace. If they do lose or draw, they have to win to be absolutely sure of safety, although if they draw against CP, a draw here would be enough if Huddersfield loses.
Crystal Palace vs. Peterborough - if they win against Millwall, a win here would be enough to secure home-pitch advantage
if and only if Brighton & Hove also loses. Barring an astronomically improbable Brighton loss by fifteen, a draw here would be insufficient for CP.
If the Millwall match ends a draw, another draw would be sufficient to keep them in the playoffs provided Forest doesn't win the Leicester match by six. If Palace loses against Millwall, they have to win or hope either Forest or Bolton loses to stay in the playoffs.
Blackburn Rovers vs. Birmingham - this match only has any importance if Birmingham pulls off an improbable 14-goal bollocking of Blackburn and five teams behind them all win.
Otherwise, Rovers ought to be fine.
LEAGUE ONEAll said and done, and Tranmere did Doncaster (84) a massive favour by holding Bournemouth (83) to a scoreless draw, putting their fate back in their hands. Doncaster edged Brentford 1-0 to claim the League One title. (Should make for an interesting Championship rivalry next season!
)
Playoff matchups are as follows:
(3) Brentford vs. (6) Swindon
(4) Yeovil vs. (5) Sheff U
Sc*nthorpe (48) couldn't beat Swindon by enough, and Colchester beat Carlisle, so that means Sc*nthorpe joins Portsmouth, Bury, and Hartlepool in League Two next season.
LEAGUE TWOWell, the auto-promo teams remained the same. Port Vale (78) ended the season with another draw, not enough to hold second but enough to stay in auto-promo. Rotherham (79) ended up passing them with their fifth straight win.
The playoff matchups look like this:
(4) Burton Albion vs. (7) Bradford City
(5) Cheltenham Town vs. (6) Northampton Town.
Unfortunately, Northampton kept their playoff spot at the expense of Barnet's (51) League status. They needed a point and a Dag & Red (51) loss. They got the latter but not the former, so goal differential bumps them down to Conference Premier for next season, where they join Aldershot (48).
CONFERENCE NORTHWe knew Chester (107) was going to win long ago, but now the playoffs are officially set to go:
(2) Guiseley vs. (5) Halifax Town
(3) Brackley vs. (4) Altrincham
Corby and Histon (both 44) both got scoreless draws on closing day, so that would have spared Colwyn Bay (49) even if they didn't extend their season-ending win streak to six, which they did courtesy of a 1-0 victory over Gloucester. Corby's goal differential was ever-so-slightly lower (-26 to Histon's -25), so they are going down for next season, joining long-doomed Droylsden and Hinckley, the latter of whom would only have had 13 points even without their two penalties (3 for failing to pay creditors, 3 for failing to play Bishop's Stortford).
CONFERENCE SOUTHWell, Dover (76) didn't just beat Bromley, they flattened them to the tune of 4-0! So they have home-pitch advantage. Here are the matchups for the Conference South playoffs:
(2) Salisbury vs. (5) Chelmsford
(3) Dover vs. (6) Eastleigh
Hornchurch (44) and Billericay (40), even though they were both eliminated, won their final match.
Predicted league orientation next season for relegated clubs:
Northern League - Droylsden and Hinckley (if they survive).
Southern League - Truro (if they survive) and Corby
Isthmian League - Billericay and Hornchurch
FEEDERSNorthern LeagueRight down to the last day to determine the champion! Hednesford and North Ferriby United (both 90) are both on splendid form going into the last day; if both teams do win their final match, NFU will win the championship on goal differential, while Hednesford will join FC United of Manchester, Witton Albion, and AFC Fylde in the playoffs.
Isthmian LeagueThe playoffs are set in the Isthmian League, with Whitehawk already having claimed the overall title.
(2) Lowestoft vs. (5) East Thurrock United
(3) Wealdstone vs. (4) Concord Rangers
Southern LeagueIt came down to the wire, but the playoffs are as follows:
(2) Stourbridge vs. (5) Gosport Borough
(3) Chesham United vs. (4) Hemel Hempstead
Had Barwell (69) been able to finish the job against Frome Town, they'd be in the playoffs instead of Gosport.
Anyhoo, I'll give a mini-update on Wednesday about the Millwall-CP match. At this point only the Championship and the Northern League haven't wrapped up yet (besides the Prems of course
).
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