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Football League + National League

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Offline Chelmsford_yid

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #225 on: December 30, 2012, 10:29:17 PM »
Great update as usual sir, thanks.


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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #226 on: January 28, 2013, 05:52:16 AM »
Update time yet again! :P

CHAMPIONSHIP

Cardiff (60) look poised to join their Welsh counterparts Swansea in the Prems next season, having opened up a 10-point lead atop the League Championship, which is double the lead they had last update. The next portion of the table looks a little different though, with Leicester (50) having caught fire in January to vault into second, even on points with (and ahead of on goal differential) Hull (also 50). Another team on a run of good form is Watford (49), who have won four of their last five and all three since last update to put them in a solid fourth. One would think Middlesbrough (47) would be up higher, but their resurgence, of which I spoke last update, apparently ran out of gas. Three league matches in January rendered three losses. Derp. :P Heck, they've even let Crystal Palace (48) back ahead of them, and Palace hasn't exactly had stellar form either, going 1-5-2 in their last 8 matches. (On the bright side for Palace, they did finally snap a winless streak, upending Wolverhampton on New Year's Day.)

Fortunately for Boro and Palace, the gap between playoff and non-playoff clubs is starting to open up. Five teams sit within six points of the playoffs but the closest any of those is, is five points; Brighton & Hove and Burnley have 42 apiece with Millwall, Leeds, and Nott Forest (all 41) a single point back.

The nether end of the table is also starting to loosen up a little. Peterborough (26) is six behind Ipswich and Sheff W (both 32) but both of these have played an extra match. Barnsley and Bristol City (both 25) are sharing bottom in points, but that could change quickly. I'd also imagine that Wolverhampton, Huddersfield (both 33), Birmingham, and Bolton (both 34) are watching their sixes as well.

LEAGUE ONE

Tranmere and Doncaster (both 56) are running neck-and-neck atop the table at this point, with the former being the official #1 on goal differential by a mere two goals! It'd be great to see the two play each other live, that's for sure! Now the four playoff spot holders aren't that far back, with Brentford (50) holding a respectable third, followed by Swindon (49), Bournemouth, and Sheffield United (both 48). There's a bit of a gap between them and disadvantaged Coventry (44), who have played more matches than any other team in League One (Walsall and Shrewsbury notwithstanding), due to goofy scheduling. If I were the manager of a playoff team I'd be more worried about MK Dons (43), who have played a league-low (jointly with Stevenage) 26 matches. Yeovil (42) and Crawley (41) are also outside shots. Walsall (also 41) have played more matches, so they need to play their cards right to keep pace.

At the other end, Hartlepool (16) are still looking pretty much boned, but they did manage to make Pompey's (21) life miserable by beating them. They may be going down but they seem to be on the up in form just enough that they may have a chance of not finishing dead last, which is still where they sit. Portsmouth has an extra game left, though. So who knows? There may yet be salvation for the afflicted southern club yet. Bury (23) is only a win behind Colchester and Sc*nthorpe (both 26) and they have superior goal differential. Oldham (27) should also be pushing to improve as they are teetering on the brink of going down themselves.

LEAGUE TWO

There are few categories in this table without a massive bottleneck. Probably the only one is that of the race for top, and even that is close - Port Vale (53) and Gillingham (52) are very close at the moment with the latter having a game in hand. The race for the third auto-promo spot and the playoff race almost overlap, they're that close:

(Note, this is fixed from Soccerway being how

3. Northampton Town - 45, +9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
4. Exeter City - 45, +3, 43 GF
5. Cheltenham Town - 45, +3, 39 GF
6. Burton Albion - 45, +1
7. Southend United - 43, +13
---------------------------------------
8. Fleetwood Town - 43, +9
9. Rotherham United - 43, +3
10. Bradford City - 40
11. Chesterfield - 39
12. Oxford United - 38
13. Torquay - 37, +2
14. Rochdale - 37, -1, 46 GF
15. Dag & Red - 37, -1, 43 GF
16. York City - 37, -2

And this is just the "within six" group. Wycombe and Morecambe (36) are also closer to the playoffs than they are to the red (albeit by a single point - they are eight behind the pack at 43 points and seven ahead of Bristol and Plymouth.

The real separation between those pushing for glory and those fighting to stay up is the five-point gap between 18th and 19th place. The difference between 19th and last, however, is only four points:

19. Accrington Stanley - 31
20. Barnet - 29, -13
21. Aldershot - 29, -14
22. Plymouth Argyle - 28, -10
-------------------------------------------------
23. Bristol Rovers - 28, -16
24. AFC Wimbledon - 27

To summarise the entire league, just about anything is possible at this point. :P

CONFERENCE PREMIER

Things are still tight up top in the Conference Premier, and Grimsby (52) is still holding onto an ever-so-slight lead over Wrexham (50) and Newport County (49), both of whom have games in hand. But, to quote Street Fighter II, "HERE COMES A NEW CHALLENGER!!" Indeed, Forest Green (48) have surprised me with a good-enough run of form to go from being outside shots to immediate contenders for the top spot in the space of a month. Kidderminster (44) and Luton (43, but have only played 25 matches) slipped up a little bit but are still in the thick of it. (Luton holds the first spot outside the playoffs.) Dartford and Mansfield (both 41, +5 goal diff) are within a win of the last playoff spot while Cambridge and Macclesfield (both 39) are within two wins. Hereford (35) should also not be taken lightly due to having extra games in hand. DEM COWS are considerably better off in goal differential than point-sharers Woking and Braintree (also 35), both of whom are -10 to Hereford's -1. But to be fair to Woking and Braintree, they also have decent runs of form going, losing just once in their last four. (In Woking's case, once in their last five.) But remember when Hyde was contending? They derped HARD. They haven't taken a single point since the last update. DERRRRRRRRRRRRP. 8D

As if falling from contention weren't bad enough, they're now only three points out of the red on top of that. Now the "within six" margin pulls the danger area all the way up to Hereford in the table, but the immediate danger area (within three) looks more like this (games played added for context):

16. (27) Hyde, 32, E
17. (28) Lincoln - 32, -7
18. (25) Gateshead - 31, -2
19. (27) Tamworth - 31, -8
20. (27) Stockport - 31, -9
-------------------------
21. (29) Telford - 29
22. (28) Nuneaton - 28
23. (26) Barrow - 26
24. (26) Ebbsfleet - 24

All sorts of variables playing in here. Gateshead is low now, but they have a real leg up on Telford and Nuneaton due to their low number of games played, superior goal differential (in both cases), and those two clubs' high numbers of games played. Seriously, I would not be surprised if Telford or Nuneaton slipped behind Barrow or Ebbsfleet, as the numbers certainly don't rule such things out. To add to this, Barrow recently pulled off a shock upset of third-place Newport County. So as with League Two, nothing is really set in stone.

CONFERENCE NORTH

I don't think I've ever seen such a discrepancy in the number of matches played. First-place Chester (74) has played the most matches with 27, but the gap in points is such that even if second-place Guiseley (58) made up all the matches with wins they'd still be behind. But then there's Halifax. 17 matches played. If they won all ten matches they had in hand on Chester, they'd go second. Yes, Chester is that far ahead. Even if Halifax were to win ten matches they'd be 11 points behind Chester.

Anyway, Brackley (46), Gainsborough (36) and Altrincham (34, +16) are the current playoff holders; I do hope someone knocks Altrincham out because I just don't like them. :P Halifax (33, +19) are the best bet in the more immediate future as Worcester City (34, +11) and Stalybridge (34, -5) have played too many more matches. And seeing how they hold four games in hand on LAWLtrincham, it is very possible. ;)

Oxford City, Bradford Park Avenue (both 32), and Solihull Moors (31) are also within 3 of a playoff spot while Harrogate (30) has a pile of games in hand as well (one fewer than Halifax, but still...)

Other end - looks like I got Histon and Droylsden backwards last update. It's Droylsden that is languishing in the second-from-bottom position; better than deplorable Hinckley (1), who got a point off Solihull so that they are once again off zero, but still possessing a laughable dozen from 22 matches played. The last team in the red, Colwyn Bay (20), has much more hope for survival, being a mere two back of Histon and Bishop's Stortford (both 22).  If Storts is reading this by any chance though, he need not worry, since Histon has played three more matches than Colwyn and BSFC has played the same number. Gloucester City (25) is in less immediate danger and have two games in hand on CBFC, not to mention FIVE on Histon. :P And they've had good form lately, losing just one of their past five - it's just that they've only played 19 matches. If they can make those up with roughly the same form, they could be out of danger in no time.

CONFERENCE SOUTH

The scheduling is a little more stable down here, but not by much. :lol: Salisbury (55) has a six-point lead on Welling (49) but has also played two more matches. Dover (40) has not changed much in the rankings because they've played so many matches, but they've lost five in a row, and surely that is going to catch them when the clubs around them start making up these games in hand, especially Chelmsford (39), who is on a good run of form, winning four of their last five. Weston-super-Mare (36), Farnborough, Hayes & Yeading, and Tonbridge Angels (all 33) are all within a decent run of the playoffs as well.

At the other end, I feel horrible for Truro (9). Judging by their form of late (4 losses in a row) I think they've pretty much given up. What follows, though, is 8 points separating 7th-place Farnborough from Sutton United (25). Staines (27) has been on a dizzying downward spiral into the red - they have only won once in their last five and their goal diff has sunk to a gut-wrenching -22, compared to everyone else with 27 points. What's worse, they've played more games than every other team in the league bar none. I get the feeling that will bite them in the ass. Basingstoke, on the other hand, is out of the red by goal differential, having strung together a three-game win streak that was just recently snapped by Welling and included a confidence-boosting win over Farnborough. Other than Truro's desparate situation, it is close in the points at the bottom, but there are factors other than points to consider, ie, number of games left to play. Should be great stuff! :D
« Last Edit: January 29, 2013, 02:10:15 AM by DC76 »

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Offline DC76

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #227 on: March 25, 2013, 01:35:26 AM »
Been a while since I updated this. Graduate degrees do that, y'know?


CHAMPIONSHIP

Well, Cardiff (75) is still on top. In spite of a snag in form, they still have a seven-point lead atop the League Championship and they have a game in hand to boot. Hull (68) is holding onto the other auto-promo spot for dear life, as both Watford (66) and Crystal Palace are right there nipping at their heels.


The playoff race has changed very little in terms of size since last update, but SWEET CREAM ON AN ICE CREAM SANDWICH! Where in the bluest of blue hells did Nottingham Forest (60) come from? They were six points out at last update, now here they are, on a seven-game unbeaten streak and a six-game win streak!


Let's compare the top 6 teams from the end of January and the top 6 now, shall we?


January

1. Cardiff - 60
2. Leicester - 50 (ahead on goal diff)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. Hull - 50
4. Watford - 49
5. Crystal Palace - 48
6. Middlesbrough - 47


March

1. Cardiff - 75 (no change here)
2. Hull - 68
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. Watford - 66
4. Crystal Palace - 65
5. Nottingham Forest - 60
6. Leicester - 59 (+25)
------------------------------------------
7. Brighton & Hove - 59 (+16)


What's the point here? I'm highlighting how Middlesbrough (54) crashed and burned something fierce, Leicester has also been on a horrible run of form, and two of the "outside looking in" teams from last update have really pulled up their socks and put together some good form to get themselves into at least striking distance of a playoff spot. Yes, Brighton & Hove have done well for themselves of late as well, having only lost two of their last nine. I'd also keep an eye on Bolton (54). They just had an 8-game unbeaten streak snapped by Ipswich, but if they can recover from that trip up in form, they'll be sailing. Middlesborough really needs to smarten up. They still have 54 points, but they've only taken in four points in their last six matches and have only won two of their last thirteen! (2-1-10 :o )

At the other end, things are much closer. Only seven points separates the top red-zone team, Peterborough U (42), from 11th-place Burnley (49). Yes, that means that more than half of the division is still in immediate danger of slipping under. Crazy, eh? With anywhere from 10 (only in the case of Millwall, who are a bit behind in their match play) to 8 matches (every side except Millwall, Cardiff, and Blackburn) remaining in the season, it's going to be very exciting stuff at the lower end:


11. Burnley - 49 (-1)
12. Birmingham - 49 (-9)
13. Derby - 48
14. Millwall - 47 (-6, 46 GF, 36 GP)
15. Charlton - 47 (-6, 46 GF, 38 GP)
16. Huddersfield - 47 (-24)
17. Blackpool - 46 (+1)
18. Blackburn - 46 (-3)
19. Ipswich - 46 (-19)
20. Barnsley - 44
21. Sheff W - 43
------------------------------------
22. Peterborough U - 42 (-9, 55 GF)
23. Wolverhampton - 42 (-9, 45 GF)
24. Bristol City - 39


A few things stand out to me. One of them is the fact that, in terms of goal statistics (for, against, and differential), Charlton and Millwall match up exactly. You don't get that often, do you? Another one, as encouragement for Bristol City fans, is that they are only four points from safety. Four points can be made up in no time if one plays one's cards right. Finally, I am astounded that Blackpool is able to keep a positive goal differential in spite of how low they are. Perhaps the fact that they are jointly second in the div in draws (with Blackburn and Birmingham, behind Brighton & Hove - what's with all the Bs? :P ) plays into this. Anyway, I will be doing more mini-updates as the time to do so comes; it's the stretch-run, so things can change in an instant.


LEAGUE ONE

Bad weather has put a cramp in the scheduling and as such the number of games remaining ranges from six to nine. However, I can still calculate the "bar of safety," and it is much lower relative to the table than it is in the Championship, where only Cardiff and Hull are "officially safe." Basically, one takes the points the first red-zoner has, then calculate the maximum number of points that are left for that team to obtain, and add the two together. Sometimes one needs to look at teams who are narrowly ahead of them but have played more matches. But anyway, in this case, the number comes to 59 - in other words, there are ten teams in League One guaranteed to at least stay at this level for next season, with an eleventh, Notts County (58), set to join them if they win or draw and/or Sc*nthorpe (38) loses or draws.


Probably the most interesting part of the table is the playoff race. Sure, Doncaster (72) has a 5-point lead, but that same span of points contains all four playoff teams, the second auto-promo, and the first team outside of the playoff race.


1. Doncaster - 72
2. Swindon - 67 (+34  :o )
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. Bournemouth - 67 (+14, 65 GF)
4. Brentford - 67 (+14, 51 GF)
5. Tranmere - 66
6. Sheff U - 65
--------------------------------------------------------
7. Yeovil - 64


And that isn't it for the playoff race. There are a few dark horses as well. These are Walsall (61, +5), Leyton Orient (61, +4), and slipping Coventry (60), plus some could argue for Notts County as well although they have more catching up to do. Still, it's pretty good that most of the teams that I said had playoff shots last update still do, and being behind on their schedule is the reason that MK Dons (54) and Crawley (53) aren't currently in the loop. Good job by Orient to fight their way up; they're on a seven-game unbeaten streak (4-3-0).


At the other end, it seems Pompey (34) finally stopped feeling sorry for themselves and have strung together a not-too-bad run of form (3-1-1 in their last five matches). But it may be too little too late for them. Even Sc*nthorpe could find themselves deeper in trouble if Oldham (39) makes up on its lagging schedule - it has two games in hand on Sc*nthorpe and Bury (33) and three on Pompey and Hartlepool (also 33). If they were to make up both matches, that means they'd be chasing Colchester (43) instead. Shrewsbury (44) is also in immediate danger, while Carlisle (46) and Preston North End (47) are also not far enough ahead to rest on their laurels. (Personally, I hope Preston crashes and burns. :P )


LEAGUE TWO

More cockeyed schedules here. At this point, those teams in the playoffs can know that they are safe from potential relegation as the "magic number" is 59. However, also present in League Two is the highest point total for any last place team in the top four levels of English football - Aldershot has 40 points and is only three points behind the first team outside the red, Accrington Stanley (43, -18). I suspect the revolving-door scenario will continue at the bottom until the last matches have been played. The "immediate danger zone" (within 6 of the first red-zoner) is still fairly large at this point:


17. Dagenham & Redbridge - 47, -3
18. Rochdale - 47, -6
19. Torquay - 46 (my how the mighty have fallen :P They were in the playoffs last season)
20. Barnet - 44
21. Plymouth - 43, -8
22. Accrington Stanley - 43, -18
------------------------
23. York City - 41
24. Aldershot - 40


There are two glaring omissions from this list - Bristol Rovers and AFC Wimbledon, who were in the red at last update. But there's a reason for this omission:


Bristol - 7-3-2 since last update
Wimbledon - 6-3-4 since last update


They both got bit by the "good form" bug :P Although it took a little longer to get to Wimbledon as they started February with another draw and two losses to add to the two draws they had in a winless skid.


Up top, Gillingham (75) seems to be pulling away, although they have played one more match than 2nd-place Port Vale (67) and 3rd-place Burton Albion (66). The playoff contenders are all within six points of Port Vale at this point, though, which should make for an interesting auto-promo race:


2. Port Vale - 67
3. Burton Albion - 66
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
4. Northampton - 65 (+10)
5. Cheltenham - 65 (+7)
6. Exeter - 63
7. Rotherham - 61
----------------------------------------
8. Fleetwood - 58


Now Rotherham is in a very advantageous position - they are one of three clubs to have only played 38 matches to this point (scheduling and all; Bradford and Wycombe are the other two), and who knows what an extra three points might do for them? Fleetwood is shown here because they are the most likely outside shot for the playoffs right now; that said, I would also have my eyes on Southend (55, +8) because they have a game in hand on Fleetwood, and Bradford (54) becaue of their two games in hand on the same and also the game in hand they have on everyone in the playoffs, Rotherham notwithstanding. Oxford (55, -6) has played the max amount of games and is thus at a disadvantage against these other two.


CONFERENCE PREMIER

Even more messed-up scheduling, and in one team's case it could mean an early relegation sealing. Kidderminster (77) is currently on top but they have also played more matches than anyone else in the top half of the table (40 total) and have red-hot Mansfield (74) right behind them with three games in hand and a nine-game win streak. Get this - they've only lost twice in 2013, and those were their only points dropped. To Kidderminster's credit, one of said Mansfield losses was to them back on 12 January. But one must wonder if Kidderminster is going to be able to keep ahead of Mansfield for much longer; to be fair, though, the Harriers have themselves only lost three times in 2013, and those were their only points dropped - 1-0 losses to Hereford (DEM COWS) and Macclesfield, and a 2-0 blush-inducer against relegation-threatened Gateshead (44).


Wrexham (72) aren't doing too poorly either - even though they have played one more match than Mansfield and have many more draws, they have only lost once in 2013 - 2-1 against Dartford a couple weeks ago, snapping a 13-game unbeaten streak going back to Boxing Day. They do need to have one eye on their six, though, since fellow Welsh side Newport County (66) have two games in hand on them; if they were to make those up, the two would be even in the points. The good news for Wrexham is that Newport's more recent form has taken a bit of a dive; they've only taken one point from their last three matches. But it could be worse. They could be Grimsby (64) and go from top to fifth. Seriously, since having their unbeaten streak snapped by Braintree in early February, things have taken a turn for the worst; Grimsby have only won twice in their last seven matches and all of those other five matches, including all of the last four, have ended as losses. They need a win against Gateshead to alleviate this downward plummet, but Gateshead can't be underestimated; just ask Kidderminster.


Another team whose luck turned downward is Forest Green (61) - they had only lost once in 2013 up to mid-February - highlights included a 5-0 bollocking of Newport on New Year's Day and a 4-1 rout of Braintree on 12 February - but since 19 February they have only one once out of seven, against a Southport (46) team that has lost five in a row. With both the team in front of them and the team behind them having two games in hand on them, Rovers may be in trouble, especially given the form the team behind them is on. Yes, Macclesfield (58) is somewhat on form, with a 7-5-2 record in 2013, including the current four-game unbeaten streak (3-1-0) that they're on, their only points dropped in that being a scoreless draw against Woking. I wouldn't rule out Macs making a move into playoff position in the recent future. Heck no.


One team to casually watch is mid-table Braintree (49). Even though they only have 49 points, they have only played 35 matches, and they're in the midst of a 6-match unbeaten streak (4-2-0) even though they had a 4-game win streak snapped by Woking courtesy of a 1-1 draw. If they were to successfully make up all four games they had in hand on Forest Green, they'd be even in points and on the doorstep of the playoffs (their goal diff is a bit bad at the moment though :P).


Braintree is, however, also in this little area called the "immediate danger zone." Or actually, it isn't quite so little. Braintree is merely at the top of this ladder and they have an absurd number of matches in hand. (Games played in parentheses before the ranking number.)


(35) 13. Braintree - 49
(39) 14. Tamworth - 48 (-8)
(38) 15. Alfreton - 48 (-9)
(39) 16. Southport - 46
(39) 17. Hyde - 45 (-9)
(40) 18. Stockport - 45 (-14)
(37) 19. Gateshead - 44
(39) 20. Lincoln - 43 (-11)
--------------------------------------
(38) 21. Nuneaton - 43 (-14)
(38) 22. Barrow - 40
(37) 23. Ebbsfleet - 36
(41) 24. Telford - 31


There are a few things to note in this section of the table. Obviously I've told you about Braintree's run of form, but it's also worth noting that both Alfreton (3-2-0) and Nuneaton (2-3-0) are on 5-game unbeaten streaks. If I were Lincoln, I'd be just a bit worried. :P Gateshead, after finally earning their first points of 2013 in late February against Macclesfield, and in rather emphatic fashion, have been somewhat inconsistent but at least the points are coming. They are 4-1-3 in their last 8 and have put up some surprising results in that section - the aforementioned Macclesfield spiel and a 2-0 win over Kidderminster, and also a 3-2 win over Hyde. If they keep this up they just might survive the season! Considering the only team that has played fewer games in the bottom half of the table is Braintree, they have an advantage in having games in hand.


Now Southport was playing .500 football until they decided to start losing matches - they've now dropped five in a row and unless they smarten up, I just can't see them beating Newport. Gateshead, maybe, but given how they've come up big in matches they've been expected to lose, Southport has their work cut out for them in that one as well.


What of the red-zoners, though? I've already expressed some optimism with regards to Nuneaton - I honestly think they have it in them to pull themselves out of the red. But there's one team I think is pretty much boned - Telford. They've played more matches than anyone else in the league, they haven't won since friggin' OCTOBER, and they've only managed five points in 2013. FIVE... FLIPPING... POINTS! And to put things in context, they are twelve points behind Nuneaton and Lincoln. If Telford loses once more, which it seems will happen, and if Nuneaton and Lincoln both gain at least one point, that is it for Telford; they're going down down down down, and if they were Altrincham or Ars*nal or Preston or someone else I actually disliked, I would start singing the chorus of that Bruce Springsteen song. :P


Ebbsfleet doesn't look much better, until you consider the fact that they have four more matches left in the season. They also have three more wins in 2013 than Telford, including a recent 4-1 throttling of Southport. So while they are in the red, the fact they've only played 37 matches helps their chances of survival. Barrow isn't too badly off either... yet. :P


CONFERENCE NORTH

Chester (91) seems to have this well in hand. Seriously, they have a sixteen-point lead over Guiseley (75) and they haven't lost since September. They have actually only dropped 11 points all season. Yes, that's right - out of a possible 102 points, they have 91. How 'bout dem apples?


Guiseley seems to have a nice little nest of their own in second place. They do have to be careful not to get too cocky up there, though, since Halifax (60) still has enough games in hand to make them a more immediate threat to Guiseley's runner-up spot. Surprising Brackley (64) has done very well for a team fresh out of the feeders that wasn't a reboot of another past team - this is the highest they've ever been on the football totem pole and they're looking quite good. They hold a respectable third although their form of late has slipped a wee bit. Halifax is fourth right now, even in points with... *shudders* Altrincham (60).  :tickedoff: I wish those guys would just... go away. Maybe Guiseley can bring this five-game win streak they're on to an abrupt end.


Outside the playoff range, the only team that's super-close is Harrogate (59), and I could see them nipping in if Altrincham starts slipping. I won't rule out Gainsborough Trinity (54) either, since they've two games in hand on Altrincham and one on Harrogate; if they make those two games on Altrincham up, they'd be even in points. Bradford Park Avenue (51) slipped up a fair bit over the last two months, so they're more in the "dark horse" category at this point. But as we've seen with other teams in this update, sometimes things come together for good for a specific club and I get proven wrong again. It's not a bad thing to be proven wrong. Except when it happens in favour of a team one doesn't like.  :lol:


At the other end, yeah, Hinckley's screwed. They have nine matches left, and even if they were to somehow win every match they'd still come up two points shy of Corby (32). They still have just three... bloody... sodding... POINTS! :P And that 112 goals they've allowed... that's gotta be some kind of record.


Droylsden (16) is doing poorly enough that they'd be last in any other division. Mathematically they still have a chance, but those chances are fading with every match. At least they scraped together a win against Hinckley to the tune of 3-2; that is the only win they've managed since the end of last October! But in their last four matches they've been outscored by an abysmal 19-0.


It's when you get to Colwyn Bay (28) that you find red-zoners with a hope in hell of staying afloat. They're only four points from safety, with Corby in their crosshairs and two games in hand. Although Corby could attempt to foist some of that pressure off on Bishop's Stortford (36), it would probably be laughed off as BSFC also has two games in hand on Corby. To be fair, none of these three teams has done all that well of late, and Colwyn, sadly enough, has the best form of the three of them!


CONFERENCE SOUTH

Scheduling isn't as messed up in the South as it is in the North; with one exception, all the teams have played between 32 and 35 matches (Bath has played 36). Welling (74) has a 9-point lead over Salisbury (65), who in turn have five points on Dover (60). Chelmsford (57) and Weston-super-Mare (53) hold the other two playoff spots, although Boreham Wood (52) and Eastleigh (49) are legitimate threats as well.


The other end is more interesting.


(33) 16. Maidenhead - 39
(32) 17. Eastbourne - 38 (-10)
(34) 18. Hornchurch - 38 (-12)
(32) 19. Tonbridge Angels - 36
-------------------------
(32) 20. Staines - 34
(32) 21. Billericay - 32
(34) 22. Truro - 19


One odd stat is that Maidenhead has positive goal differential. What the crap are they doing down in this part of the table then? :P Teams that are in danger but not as immediately include Hayes & Yeading (41), Basingstoke, Bath, and Havant & Waterlooville (all 44, and especially Bath since they have played 36 matches).


And that's all for now.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2013, 04:03:41 AM by DC76 »

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #228 on: March 30, 2013, 07:06:01 PM »
Mini-updates:


CHAMPIONSHIP

It is now mathematically impossible for Watford (67) to be relegated; a draw against Burnley put them over the top in spite of wins for both Wolverhampton and Peterborough (both 45). The bar of safety is 66.


LEAGUE ONE

Sc*nthorpe's (41) surprise win over Leyton Orient (61) keeps the bar of safety at 59. Oldham (40) has slipped into the red, but they (and Sheff U) have played a league-low 38 matches, meaning they have games in hand on everyone else in their area of the table (from 15th downward the only team on which Oldham has fewer than two games in hand is Preston North End) and thus are not hopeless by any means.


LEAGUE TWO

No change to the bar of safety - it remains at 59. Fleetwood (59) only needs York to lose or draw and they're officially set for next season. Four other teams could join them with a win in that scenario.


CONFERENCE PREMIER

How Kidderminster (81) is still on top escapes me. But being how they've played more games than any other team in the Conference Prem, except for Telford (31), all that it would take for them to lose top spot is for Mansfield to match them point for point until they run out of games, and then take two more points on top of it.


The bar of safety is at 62; all five playoff-plus teams plus sixth-place Forest Green (64) are clear.


Telford is approaching a less desirable area, the point of no return. :P Anything less than full points from their last four matches, and even a single point from Southport, Nuneaton, and/or Gateshead, and they're toast. (In other words, they're likely boned. :lol: )


CONFERENCE NORTH

The bar of safety is 57; all five playoff-plus teams plus sixth-place Harrogate (59) are clear.


Like I said last full update, there is absolutely no way Hinckley (3) can dodge relegation. Droylsden (16), believe it or not, is still mathematically capable of staying afloat, though, as they can max out at 43 points (9 matches remain on their schedule).


The number of points Chester needs to clinch the Conference North championship is 15; Halifax (60) has enough games left that they can still max out at 99 points, while Guiseley (75) can max out at 105.


CONFERENCE SOUTH

The bar of safety is at 60, which is the maximum number of points that Billericay (33) can obtain; the reason why the second red-zoner is the bar-setter is that Hornchurch (38) has played three more matches and can only max out at 56. While technically only the top 3 clubs - Welling (77), Salisbury (65), and Dover (63) - are safe, Chelmsford (60) only needs Billericay to lose or draw their next match and they're laughing.


Kudos to Truro (19) for still at least trying. After all, if that ten-point penalty gets overturned (if they come out of admins), they can max out at 50.

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #229 on: April 02, 2013, 10:25:26 PM »
Time for another update.

CHAMPIONSHIP

With Huddersfield's (47) loss to Bolton, the bar of safety drops again, to 65. Crystal Palace (65) lost to Blackpool yesterday, but in spite of this they only need a point in their last six matches to guarantee safety. Obviously they'll want more to keep pace in the playoffs. Speaking of playoffs, Leicester (59) has slipped out of playoff position, giving ground to Brighton & Hove (61). Middlesbrough (55) snapped a four-game losing streak with a draw against lowly Peterborough (46), while Bolton (57) put themselves within striking distance of the playoffs with a 1-0 win over Huddersfield. Peterborough's form is surprisingly good for a red-zoner; they're on a 7-game unbeaten streak (3-4-0).

Cardiff (78) has clinched at least a playoff spot, since Leicester (59), the first team out, can no longer catch them, nor can anyone else behind them.

LEAGUE ONE

Sc*nthorpe (41) dropped a 1-0 decision to red-hot Bournemouth (73) to drop the bar of safety to 56 points, and four more teams are in the clear - MK Dons (60) won, as did Crewe (58), while Notts County (also 58) and Crawley (57) simply benefited from Sc*nthorpe's loss.

What the crap happened to Tranmere (66)?  At one point Rovers were joint top in points. Now they're out of the playoffs entirely! Swindon (68) is also on a three-game winless streak, and they have since allowed Bournemouth, Brentford (70), and Sheffield United (69) to slip past them. Yeovil (68) has taken over Tranmere's playoff spot.

Also, Oldham (41) is back out of the red, if only by goal diff.


Doncaster (75) needs only four points to clinch at least a playoff spot. Bournemouth (73) can do it with six.

LEAGUE TWO

Well isn't this interesting! Both red-zoners won; York (45) beat Plymouth Argyle (46, -9, 42 GF), the very team who is right ahead of them in the standings, and Aldershot (44) stunned Oxford (56) 3-2. Since the 'Shots have a game in hand on Torquay (46), the bar of safety actually sits at 58, meaning that Fleetwood (60) is now in the clear, and Bradford (58) is practically assured of it as well being how the difference in goal differential between the two is seventeen in Bradford's favour.


Gillingham (79) has clinched at least a playoff spot, and the teams in the top 8 haven't changed, but their ordering has - given the games remaining, I expect the playoff positioning to be quite fluid until the last final whistle blows.


CONFERENCE PREMIER

The draw against Woking last month will come back to haunt Kidderminster (84) since Mansfield (83) is not letting up, having won twelve in a row and 17 out of 19 in 2013. Wowzers! Also keep in mind that the Harriers now only have three matches left while Mansfield (and everyone else currently in the playoffs for that matter) have six.


The bar of safety has dropped to 59, so two more teams join the ranks of the safe: DEM COWS :P and Macclesfield (both 60). While still mathematically possible for these two to make the playoffs, I would call them dark horses at this point. You'd be more likely to see that from Forest Green (65), who are four points out with an extra game played.


Kidderminster and Mansfield have both clinched at least playoffs this season.


CONFERENCE NORTH

I had to go through each individual team and figure out their mathematical ability to make the playoffs. :P Seriously, the schedule is that screwed up. Now here's a thought for you - 18th-place Bishop's Stortford (40) is still theoretically capable of making the playoffs, as with eight matches remaining they can max out at 64 points. It's incredibly far-fetched, but given that both Altrincham and Halifax have 63 points, it's still possible. More likely to make the playoffs is 16th-place Oxford City (40) who have ten matches left. These are the only two teams in the bottom half of the draw who still have a chance at the playoffs, and if Altrincham and Halifax both get one point, that's it for Stortford's chances. On the flip side, 12th-place Boston (48) has been eliminated from contention, since they only have four matches left, having played a league-high 38 matches total.


With that said, only one team is capable of catching Chester (97) up top, this being Guiseley (81). Guiseley does have two more matches to play than Chester, but they have to hope Chester really derps up. Chester has six matches left. If they win three of those, they clinch the championship. Good news for Guiseley though; if Bradford Park Avenue drops a point and/or Altrincham loses, they clinch at least a playoff spot.


Droylsden (17)'s recent bollocking at the hands of Vauxhall (49) combined with Corby's (39) shock win over Brackley (70), sealed their relegation fate. With seven matches remaining, Droylsden can now only max out at 38, and they would've needed one more to catch Corby, who is the first team out of the red, nine ahead of Colwyn Bay (30).


The bar of safety is 54; Gainsborough Trinity (55) is now in the clear with Bradford Park Avenue (54) only needing to garner a point or have Colwyn Bay lose to join.


CONFERENCE SOUTH

Much more difficult to predict than Conference North, where two teams are already out. There is still the off-chance of Truro (20) being able to come out of administration; if there were not, Truro would be doomed to relegation. Billericay (37) and Maidenhead (39) are still very close to safety, and if the maximum amount of points one could glean indicated who would go up or down at this point, Billericay would actually survive and it would be 16th-place Hornchurch (41) going under. The immediate danger area still contains five teams, while the current bar of safety is 57, so Weston-super-Mare (57) and Boreham Wood (56) are on the verge as it were.


Welling needs 8 points to clinch the divisional championship. But I see the playoff race being very close with lots of teams involved!
« Last Edit: April 03, 2013, 02:55:44 AM by DC76 »

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #230 on: April 06, 2013, 09:12:02 PM »
Mini-updates:

CHAMPIONSHIP

Bar of safety at 63, which puts Crystal Palace (66) over the top, and several other teams on the verge.

Hull (74) can clinch at least a playoff spot with a win, or the combination of a draw and a non-win by both Leicester and Bolton (both 60).

LEAGUE ONE

Bar of safety at 53. Crewe (58) and Stevenage (54) now in the clear.

Doncaster (78) has clinched at least a playoff spot. Bournemouth (76) can follow suit with a point, or anything less than a win from MK Dons (61, but 5 matches left).

LEAGUE TWO


Bar of safety at 55. Fleetwood, Chesterfield (both 60), Bristol Rovers (58, not bad for a team who was in the red), Southend (57), and Oxford U (56) are in the clear. Wycombe and Morecambe (both 55) can join them if York and/or Torquay (both 46) do anything less than win, or with a draw. Rochdale (54) can join them with a win.

Port Vale (74) can clinch at least a playoff spot with a win, or a combination of a draw and anything less than a win for Exeter (63) or Bradford City (61).

CONFERENCE PREMIER

Bar of safety at 57. Dartford (59), Braintree, and Woking (both 58) in the clear. Luton and Cambridge (both 56) can join them with a win or anything less than a win for Nuneaton (48) or Stockport (49).

Wrexham (76) can clinch at least a playoff spot (which is probably all they'll get at this point :P) with a win, or anything less than a win by Forest Green (65). A Forest Green loss would also clinch a playoff spot for Newport County, and furthermore, if Grimsby (73) were to win, they'd be clear as well, locking up the playoff race.

If Kidderminster (87) wins, it becomes practically impossible for anyone other than Mansfield to take the Conference title from them. Also, if Wrexham or Grimsby lose, that eliminates them from title contention. Newport has more wiggle room. :P

Ebbsfleet (38) will practically be eliminated if they lose.

CONFERENCE NORTH

The combination of a Chester (103) victory over Boston and a Guiseley (82) loss to Brackley (73) means that Chester has officially clinched the Conference North title. On the bright side for Guiseley, they have officially clinched a playoff spot since Harrogate (60) lost and BPA couldn't catch them to begin with.

Bar of safety is at 52. If Colwyn Bay (31) drops any points in their next match, Solihull Moors (52) are in the clear. Bradford Park Avenue (60), Gainsborough Trinity (55), and Gloucester City (54) are all clear.

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Bar of safety is now 55, putting Weston-super-Mare (61) and Boreham Wood (56) in the clear; the former is also now in playoff position. Playoff race is still very close; mathematically, Bath (51), Basingstoke (48), Bromley (45), and Staines (43) can still make it, although all three would be eliminated if Chelmsford (60)  were to win. A win by Eastleigh (58) or a draw by Chelmsford would eliminate Bath, Basingstoke and Bromley from playoff contention, but Staines would have to lose or draw to be eliminated in that scenario.

Welling needs 7 points to clinch the division title.

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #231 on: April 07, 2013, 01:28:12 AM »
I have a soft spot for Barnet. They play there last game at underhill(home ground) on the 20th against Wycombe. I've got my self a ticket for this sad day ahead :(


http://spursnetwork.com/forums/index.php?board=40.0

I have no idea what a DDOS attack is but it sounds a bit like a girl with large breasts attacking us? Is there any video of the attack as i would like to watch that one day?

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #232 on: April 07, 2013, 03:54:05 AM »
If Barnet wins (preferably against Torquay, whom they're trying to get away from :P ), and York loses, that's just about enough to ensure they stay in the League for another season.


I hope you enjoy the Wycombe match. :)
« Last Edit: April 07, 2013, 03:58:28 AM by DC76 »

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #233 on: April 07, 2013, 08:03:56 AM »
Thanks, I'll try and get a photo of Eager Davids, as he's the player-manger at Barnet.  :up:


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I have no idea what a DDOS attack is but it sounds a bit like a girl with large breasts attacking us? Is there any video of the attack as i would like to watch that one day?

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #234 on: April 11, 2013, 02:58:03 AM »
Mini-update:


LEAGUE ONE

Although the bar of safety is still at 53, Preston and Carlisle (both 54) have gone clear with wins on Tuesday. This leaves only seven teams for which it is still mathematically possible to be relegated:


18. Shrewsbury - 48
19. Colchester - 47
20. Oldham - 41 (-15)
--------------------------------------
21. Sc*nthorpe - 41 (-26)
22. Portsmouth - 39
23. Hartlepool - 36
24. Bury - 34


MK Dons also won, so Bournemouth still needs a point to clinch at least the playoffs for this season.


LEAGUE TWO

Bar of safety still the same. Exeter (63) got smoked 4-1 by Rotherham, meaning that Port Vale (75) is at least in the playoffs courtesy of a 1-1 draw against Aldershot. Also, Gillingham (82) have clinched promotion to League One.


CONFERENCE PREMIER

You had to see this coming. Mansfield (89) have finally gone top, after beating Macclesfield (60) 3-1. Furthermore, DEM COWS (66) beat Forest Green (65), meaning that the teams in the playoffs are set in stone. Should Newport (78) do anything less than beat Macclesfield tonight (your time zone, tomorrow afternoon in mine :P ), it will be impossible for them to finish top leaving only Kidderminster in their way. With two matches left, the Harriers can max out at 93 points, so a combination of a Mansfield win and a Kidderminster loss would give Mansfield the title.


CONFERENCE SOUTH

The number of points Welling needs to clinch the Conference South title has dwindled to four. And in spite of Truro's (21) best efforts, they seem to be knocking on the door of relegation; even a draw in their next match would condemn them to relegation regardless of whether or not their 10-point penalty gets lifted. :(

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #235 on: April 14, 2013, 12:59:30 AM »
Update time!


CHAMPIONSHIP (minimum 4, maximum 6 matches remaining)


Cardiff (83) has all but clinched promotion. Seriously, all they need is for Watford (71) to drop points, or match the same point-for-point in the next match. It'll be a little harder for them to shake Hull (77) for the title, though. Their magic number is 6.


The two teams in auto-promo position are also the only two that have clinched at least a playoff spot even now. Watford (71) isn't too far off, though. They are eight points ahead of Nott Forest and Bolton (both 63), and if either of them loses, all Watford needs is a draw. Although a win is probably preferable. :P


The "striking distance" crew with regards to the playoffs (that is, within six points) only comprises three clubs outside the playoff position; Nottingham Forest (63) is only out by goal differential, Leicester (61), in spite of their piss-poor form, are still within two points, and more on-form Charlton (59) are within four - their 6-0 bollocking of Barnsley (49) could only have helped that.


The bar of safety currently sits at 61, so even Charlton is not completely out of range of relegation just yet, but another win would put them there.


Now as far as the red goes, Bristol City (40) cannot lose another match this season, and actually, even if they draw, all that needs to happen is for Peterborough and Blackburn (50) to at least match them in points, and they're done like dinner. The other two red-zoners are far closer; Barnsley (49) is only one point in the red, having been put there after getting dinged for half a dozen goals against Charlton Ath. There's no ruling Wolverhampton (48) out of getting out of the red either, as they are just two behind Peterborough and Blackburn.


LEAGUE ONE (Minimum two, maximum four matches remain)


And Bournemouth (79) got the point they needed plus two more. :P So they've clinched at least a playoff spot, joining first-place Doncaster (81). But they aren't alone. MK Dons (64) lost, so even with their game in hand they can only max out at 73, a fate shared by Walsall and Leyton Orient (both 67). Basically, all the playoff hopefuls are chasing Swindon (68) as Sheffield United (73) only needs a point to secure a playoff spot, while Brentford (77) and Yeovil (74) have already done so. (I have a slight soft spot for Yeovil since they had Canadian Gavin McCallum on their side back in the day, so this is good news for me. :) )


Bury (34) is officially hooped after dropping a 1-0 decision to Oldham (44); this match also put Oldham back outside the red zone. In spite of their good run of form, it may be too little too late for Hartlepool (39), winners of two in a row. If Oldham gets even one point out of their last four matches, that's basically it for them, and Portsmouth (also 39) as well. My how the mighty have fallen.


The outlook is decidedly less bleak for Sc*nthorpe (42), though. Their form of late hasn't been great, but they are only two points back of Oldham and they have three matches left, as opposed to the two that Pompey and H-pool have.


The bar of safety is at 51. Shrewsbury can reach it with a win, and if Bury beats Sc*nthorpe on Tuesday and Shrewsbury (48) and Colchester U (47) both win, only Oldham would remain in terms of teams that could be relegated but aren't currently in the red.


Oh yeah, forgot this little tidbit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/21970140 Coventry's (54) been dinged ten points for going into admins. That basically killed any chance of them making the playoffs.


LEAGUE TWO (Minimum two, maximum three matches remain)

Gillingham (82) dun goofed. They could have locked up the League Two title even with a point, and they went and lost :P  The loss was good news for the winning side, though, as Cheltenham (71) has clinched at least a playoff spot because of it. Port Vale (76) still has a massive disadvantage - they have to win both remaining matches and hope Gillingham loses both remaining matches - if they get even one more point, that's it for their title hopes and they'll have to be content with auto-promo, which itself is not yet set in stone (Cheltenham, Rotherham (70) and Northampton (68) can still catch them).

The playoffs could still be anyone's guess, primarily because of Bradford (65) lagging behind the rest of the playoff pack. Exeter City (64) is right on their tail, even though their form has been crap of late. :P I'd be more worried about Chesterfield (61) who have one more game remaining and are on much better form, having gone four matches unbeaten. Fleetwood (60) is an outside shot at this point, Oxford U and Bristol Rovers (both 59) are all but out, and Rochdale (58) is mathematically out. Strangely enough, though, Southend and Wycombe (both also 58) can still both max out at 67, so unless Bradford wins another match, they're still in the hunt if only on a technicality.


The bar of safety is 55. Morecambe (55) needs only match Torquay (46) point-for-point and they'll be fine.


CONFERENCE PREMIER (Minimum one, maximum three matches remain)

Braintree did Kidderminster (90) a massive favour by beating Mansfield (89), but Mansfield also has one more match left. Newport (84) also won, but it is still all but impossible for them to get the auto-promo spot, while Wrexham (79) and Grimsby (77) have to be content with playoff spots.


While the playoff race is over, the race to stay alive is anything but. Telford (35) was already boned, but they could probably derive some satisfaction from dooming Ebbsfleet (38) to the same fate by beating them on Saturday. :P Cambridge U (59) snapped their winless streak and doomed Barrow (46) to the same fate (they only have one match remaining). But Stockport (49) is still very much alive, and with the bar of safety at 55, anyone from 15th down still has a chance of being relegated. However, should Stockport drop any points, they could just as easily find themselves going under with a match left. Funny I should say that, because they're playing one of the teams they're chasing on Tuesday. Their match against Gateshead (51) is a six-pointer for sure. If Tamworth (also 51) were to beat Ebbsfleet and Gateshead were to beat them, Stockport would be doomed to drop.


CONFERENCE NORTH (Minimum two, maximum six matches remaining)

With the championship race already decided, focus shifts to the playoff race in the lagging Conference North. Brackley (79) still needs another point to clinch a playoff spot and join Guiseley (87), since Harrogate (64) can still theoretically catch them. Besides the teams in playoff position - also including Halifax (71) and Altrincham (70) - only two teams really have a shot, those being Harrogate and Bradford Park Avenue (also 64); Gainsborough Trinity (58), while they can max out at 70, are basically out anyway.


The bar of safety is at 46, which is actually relative to Corby (40) who only have two matches remaining. They had better win both of those and pray that Colwyn Bay (34) don't go on a batcrap-insane hot streak, considering that the Welsh side has three games in hand on them. :P With Droylsden (21) and Hinckley (6) already out, the race to stay out of that last spot is gonna heat up. Honestly, I think Corby's good for the drop. Unless Bishop's Stortford (42) or Histon (41) really implodes, of course.


CONFERENCE SOUTH (Minimum two, maximum four matches remain)

Welling (84) still hasn't put this one to bed yet! They need at least one more point to put themselves ahead of Salisbury (76) for good. Speaking of Salisbury, they have clinched a playoff spot at the very least, with Eastleigh (62) having lost and no longer being able to catch them.


As the playoff race goes, it is still anyone's game. Dover (68) could theoretically clinch if they were to win and Eastleigh were to do anything but. Weston-super-Mare (64) is in a bit of a bind, though, as while they have the playoff spot they have also played 40 matches, which is the maximum any team in the division has (along with Welling, Bath, Basingstoke, and Hornchurch), and they're just two points ahead of the first team on the outside. Chelmsford (63) snapped a three-game losing streak but will be hard-pressed to stay in that playoff spot.


There are five teams on the outside that are still mathematically capable of making the playoffs - beside Eastleigh, these include Boreham Wood (59, 4 GR), Sutton (58, 4 GR), Havant & Waterlooville (56, 3 GR), and Dorchester (55, 4 GR). H&W are in the most precarious position of these five, though; they cannot even drop points or they're toast.


At the other end, the bar of safety is at 47, with Hornchurch finally dropping into the red after losing against Truro (24). With all the other teams in the danger area and the two teams behind them having more matches left to play, Hornchurch will need a miracle to stay in Conference South for next season.

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #236 on: April 17, 2013, 12:42:14 AM »
Mini-update.

CHAMPIONSHIP

Since Millwall beat Watford today, Cardiff (84) is now officially in the Premiership for next season. Adding to that, they only need two points in their last three games to claim the League Championship. (They could do it quicker with a win though. :P ) Hull could also be back in the Prems, provided they win just one more match, and Watford drops any points.

Bristol City (40) is done-diddly-done-for. :P Better luck in League One next season.

The bar of safety is at 60.

LEAGUE ONE

Oldham (47)'s 1-0 win over Yeovil has doomed both Hartlepool and Portsmouth (both 39) to relegation, and all but doomed Sc*nthorpe (42) as well, as the first two teams out of safety have 47 points (Oldham and Colchester). The bar of safety is at 48.

Still very close up top.

LEAGUE TWO

Gillingham (82) need just a single point (or for Port Vale (76) to drop points) and they've won the League Two championship. They've already clinched promotion, in spite of losing to Cheltenham (71). Speaking of whom, they and Burton Albion (73) have both clinched playoff spots. Northampton (69) only needs Exeter (64) to drop points and they're in as well.

Southend (61) kept their playoff hopes alive with a win.

At the other end, Barnet (48) is in the red after losing 3-2 to Torquay, but they're only a point back of York (49), so it's nothing insurmountable... yet. :P Aldershot (45), however, are on the brink after losing to Southend.

The bar of safety sits at 54 points.

CONFERENCE PREMIER

Mansfield (92) is back on top after beating DEM COWS, so Kidderminster (90) has to win by two and hope that Mansfield doesn't win to claim the title. It's more a case of jockeying for position at this point. Newport (85) has a death grip on third, so it's more a battle between Wrexham and Grimsby (both 80) to see who plays whoever loses the title race and who plays Newport.

The bar of safety is at 53, with Stockport (50) still clinging to life. Stockport's got pretty bad odds right now - their last match, which they must win, is against Kidderminster, and they need either Gateshead (52) to lose, or Tamworth (also 52) to lose or draw. But one never knows, do they? :P

CONFERENCE NORTH

And the plot thickens. Colwyn Bay (37) surprised Brackley (79) by beating them, and this applies even further pressure to faltering Corby (40); because of scheduling makeups, Colwyn Bay could actually put Corby in the red by beating Oxford City (49). Bar of safety still at 46.

Bradford Park Avenue (64) has a six-pointer today against Altrincham (70); if they win, they close to within three points of the playoffs. If they lose, they could lag eight or nine points behind, depending on Halifax (72)'s result against Harrogate on Thursday; so really, they gotta win this sucker! That said, if Halifax wins and BPA loses, Halifax has a sure playoff spot.

CONFERENCE SOUTH

Almost perfectly status quo here. Eastleigh (65) has bumped Weston-Super-Mare (64) out of their playoff spot. Bar of safety at 47.

FEEDERS

We're getting to the point where feeder champions are close.  Leamington (86) needs only a point to clinch the Southern League title.

More on Sunday. :)

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Offline Chelmsford_yid

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #237 on: April 20, 2013, 06:46:06 PM »
Like I said went to Barnet today. They won 1-0, keeps there fight to stay in the football league alive.
I'm sure DC will give you a update soon, bloody tight down there.

They have Northampton away next week, a tricky tie me thinks :(


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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #238 on: April 22, 2013, 02:28:06 AM »
Indeed. It's update time now. :P


CHAMPIONSHIP (Two matches remain, except for Crystal Palace and Blackburn with three and Millwall with four)

Well, Cardiff (85) are officially the Football League Champions, having clinched because of Hull's (78) recent loss to lowly Wolverhampton (51) - more on them later. Now Hull can still wrap up promotion with a win, but if they lose both, then Watford (74) can catch them with a win and a draw.


The playoff race still has a fair few mathematical contenders, but this could easily shrink after the next set of fixtures on Saturday. Only Watford officially has a playoff spot locked down, although if Brighton and Hove (69) are able to beat Leeds or Wolverhampton, they will be in for sure as well. Bolton (66) and Crystal Palace (67) will really need to watch their sixes, especially the latter, who have gone seven matches without a win. Leicester (65) are the closest to a playoff spot, with Nott Forest (64) close behind. Charlton (61) have the best form out of those teams on the outside still within playoff range, but they can't drop a point if they want to make it in. Same goes for Birmingham (60), minus a point and any of the form comments. Actually, the Brummies are a bit of a long-shot at this point. :P


The bar of safety is at 57, meaning that there are still quite a few teams in danger of relegation - actually, Wolverhampton and Barnsley (both 51) sit equal in points with the first team in safety, Peterborough, so they are far from doomed themselves, unlike Bristol City (41). Huddersfield (53) and Blackburn (54) are in immediate danger as well. A logjam of teams with 55 points - Burnley, Blackpool, Millwall, and Sheffield Wednesday - and Ipswich (57), not so much. Any number of these teams could find themselves safe from danger should they win a match. Millwall could actually be in the clear as soon as Tuesday, depending on how their tilt with Crystal Palace goes. (If Palace wins, mind you, that all but puts them in the playoffs, so this should be quite the hard-fought match - both teams have something to lose here!)


LEAGUE ONE (One match remains, except for six clubs with two.)

Well, looky here! Bournemouth (82) have taken over top spot from Doncaster (81), having won their eighth in a row, while Rovers have lost two of their last three to slip to second. The teams in the playoffs are now set, although the positions are not; neither Bournemouth nor Doncaster have clinched automatic promotion, as Brentford (79) can still catch either of them, and even more dangerously, Brentford plays Doncaster on closing day. To Bournemouth's advantage, they have form-deprived Tranmere (66) in their last match; they've lost 7 of their last 8.


At the other end, Sc*nthorpe (45) has to hope they're able to beat far superior Swindon (74) and hope Colchester (48) doesn't at least draw Carlisle (55). Failing that, they'll be in League Two next season.


LEAGUE TWO (One match remains, across the board)

Gillingham (83) are League Two champions, but not as much by their own effort in this stretch run as by their rivals' incompetence. :P Port Vale (77) have drawn three straight and they ran out of games in which to correct this futility streak. If they keep the draws coming against Wycombe (59), though, they will secure at least automatic promotion. Rotherham (76) is less secure, but they also have dead-last Aldershot (48) in their last match (who have to win and hope Wimbledon loses and Barnet loses by a LOT). Cheltenham (74) has it a little harder with playoff-bound Bradford (68) being their final opponents. Oh yeah, that reminds me; playoff teams are set.


Other end; there still is a very slim chance of both red-zoners finishing safely. For AFC Wimbledon (50) this simply means beating Fleetwood (60). A draw would not suffice due to their horrendous goal differential - actually they could finish dead last if they were to lose or draw, and Aldershot were to win, since the 'Shots can max out at 51 points.  Like I said earlier, the deck is stacked against Aldershot although the mathematical chance of survival is still there.


CONFERENCE PREMIER (Regular season done!)


Kidderminster's (93) luck ran out, as Mansfield (95) beat Wrexham (80) 1-0 to earn the Conference Championship and the automatic promotion to the League that comes with it. Stockport's (50) luck also ran out - not only did they lose to Kidderminster 4-0, but Gateshead and Tamworth (both 55) both won. See you in Conference North next season, the 'Port!  :lol:


Playoff matchups are as follows:


(2) Kidderminster vs. (5) Wrexham
(3) Newport vs. (4) Grimsby


CONFERENCE NORTH (Most teams have one or two matches left; Halifax and Oxford City have three)

The playoff teams are set here as well, although positioning is not entirely set as Halifax and Altrincham (both 74) have to fight out who is playing 2nd-place Guiseley (88) and who is playing third-place Brackley (82). Quite literally at first. They play each other on Tuesday. Go Halifax. :P


The other end is a lot more interesting. The bar of safety is at 46, so there still is chance that Bishop's Stortford (45) can go down, but a slim one. Corby (43) won against Workington, but most noteworthy on the table is that Colwyn Bay (43) have pulled themselves out of the red with a four-game win streak. If they make that streak five or if Corby loses against Gainsborough Trinity, they're in the clear. Keep in mind that Colwyn Bay could actually clinch their safety tonight (tomorrow afternoon my time) by beating Bradford Park Avenue. Otherwise, they'd have to beat the same Gloucester team that has given up enough that they let Corby beat them. :P


CONFERENCE SOUTH (Most teams have two matches left; six only have one)

Okay, what the crap is wrong with Welling (85)? They still haven't clinched the title that is just begging them to come and get it! Boreham Wood were the spoilers this time, holding them to a 1-1 draw. But now, all they need is a point against Eastleigh, or for Salisbury (79) to drop points against either Sutton (64) tonight/tomorrow, or against Basingstoke (48) on Saturday. Given the form of Sutton, I wouldn't be surprised if the former happened. They've won six in a row, have gone unbeaten in seven, and are hungry for the playoffs.


There's a snag here, though. If all playoff position teams (Salisbury notwithstanding because they've already clinched) win, the playoff teams are then set. Weston-super-Mare (67) has only one match left and they can max out at 70. Here are the upcoming matches that matter:


Today/Tomorrow (including both Monday and Tuesday games, GMT):


Chelmsford vs. Maidenhead (if Chelmsford wins, they clinch a playoff spot)
Sutton vs. Salisbury (if Sutton does anything less than win, they're out of playoff contention unless Eastleigh loses both of their remaining matches. If they lose, they're out regardless.)
Eastleigh vs. Truro City (if Eastleigh wins, they clinch a playoff spot)
Staines vs. Dover (if Dover takes even a point from this, they clinch a playoff spot)


Weston-super-Mare doesn't play again until next Saturday, so they may be out of contention before they can even do anything about it.


At the other end, it is down to two teams who can be relegated; Tonbridge Angels (44) are still within reach of Hornchurch (41) but the latter only has a game left. Sure, they have Hayes & Yeading (48), but Tonbridge has Truro City (25) and Eastbourne (47). If they get even a point in their last two, Tonbridge stays up.


FEEDERS

The Northern League title race is heating up! North Ferriby and Hednesford (87) are even in the points atop the table with only two matches left.


Whitehawk (85) all but has the Isthmian League won. They can clinch with a draw against East Thurrock U, or with dropped points by Lowestoft (76). Even if Lowestoft wins every game and Whitehawk loses against ETUFC, they'd have to win those three matches by a combined total of 11 goals to pass Whitehawk on goal differential.


Leamington (89) has won the Southern Premier League.

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Offline DC76

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Re: Football League + Conference
« Reply #239 on: April 26, 2013, 06:20:36 PM »
Mini-update:


LEAGUE ONE


Playoff-plus teams are set, but still plenty of wiggle-room in terms of the top six positions.


Tomorrow's important matches:


Bournemouth (82) vs. Tranmere Rovers (66) - if Bournemouth wins, they are League One champions.
Brentford (79) vs Doncaster Rovers (81) - a definite six-pointer. If Bournemouth loses, a win by Doncaster would clinch them the League One title while keeping Bournemouth in automatic promotion. In the same situation, a win by Brentford by less than seven would mean Bournemouth still wins the League One title, while a win by more than seven would win Brentford the title. It would seem that Bournemouth has auto-promo regardless. That said, a draw would favour Doncaster. Now if Bournemouth wins, the winner of this match gets auto-promo. A Bournemouth draw eliminates Brentford from title contention.
Bury (38) vs. Yeovil (77) - a draw or better for Yeovil secures home-pitch advantage.
Sc*nthorpe (45) vs. Swindon (74) - if Yeovil loses, a Swindon victory would give them home-pitch advantage.
Sheffield United (74) vs. Preston North End (58) - if both Yeovil and Swindon lose, a Sheff U win could give them home-pitch advantage, provided the amount Yeovil loses by and the amount Sheff U wins by equals three.


Tight stuff!


Oh, good news for Portsmouth (32). Yes, they have been given a fresh ten-point penalty, but that was for coming out of administration. Why is that good news? Pompey lives on, that's why.


LEAGUE TWO


The last day of matches is going to be intense! Gillingham (83) has assured a championship, while Port Vale (77) would need a situation so impossible that only the Good Lord Himself could bring it to pass to happen for them to lose their auto-promo spot. Seriously. Cheltenham (74) are only three points back, but they would have to win by an absurd amount against a fellow playoff team who has a better goal differential, and hope Port Vale loses by an absurd amount to a mid-table team! :P Port Vale, at +35, has the best goal diff in League Two, while Cheltenham has a mere +7.


But this does not mean that Cheltenham can't claim the third auto-promo spot. It would be difficult, as it would require that Rotherham (76) lose against last-place Aldershot (48). Cheltenham does have to beat Bradford (68), but at least they aren't in the pretty much impossible situation of having to make up 29 goals' worth of goal differential (if Rotherham draws against Aldershot, they still have to make up seven. Still improbable but not to the same degree.)


Burton Albion (73) still has a mathematical chance as well, but they have to make up nine goals of goal diff and also hope both Rotherham and Cheltenham lose. Deck stacked much?


Other than this it's simple position-jockeying.


At the other end, boy is it ever close. Aldershot may have a tough deal against Rotherham, but should they pull the "impossible" off and win that, they have a shot. What really seems far-fetched is them winning by seven, which is the amount it would take for them to catch Barnet (51), the first team out of the red.


Where things get interesting is with AFC Wimbledon (50). Because of their point total, there are still five other teams in danger, most immediately Barnet and Dag & Red (both 51), and then also Plymouth, Torquay, and York (all 52). Not sure it's worth it to list all the important matches, because it might be coterminous with the entire fixtures list. :P I will say this much, though. York and Dags play each other. York is on form. The Daggers are not. Oh how the plot thickens. :P



CONFERENCE NORTH

Well, we're now to a game left even in the entire division. Unfortunately, Altrincham (77) has taken a two-point lead on Halifax, so it looks like HTFC is going to be stuck with Guiseley (91). That said, Halifax can still move up a spot if Altrincham loses its last game and they win.


At the other end, Bishop's Stortford (48) lives to fight another season and Colwyn Bay (46) is practically there as well. Both Histon and Corby (both 43) would have to win their final matches, against Bradford Park Avenue and Gainsborough Trinity (both 65) respectively, and Colwyn Bay would have to lose against Gloucester (54) who have been on a four-game losing streak. Not that BPA's form has been much better, but still, the chances of Colwyn Bay going down, while there, are infinitesimal, especially with Colwyn Bay's form of late (5 game win streak).


CONFERENCE SOUTH

Well, just after I left for my internet hiatus/cabin mini-vacation, Salisbury (79) handed Welling (85) the division title on a silver platter by losing 1-0 to Sutton :P Now it would have done Sutton some good, had Eastleigh not beat Truro 3-1 the following day. The playoff contenders are now set, although there's still some jockeying to be done for position; sure, Salisbury has second pinned down, but third, fourth, and fifth will come down to the wire.


Dover (73) bumped a slump - that is, a four-game winless skid - against Staines (47) on Tuesday, so they have the upper hand. If they win against Bromley (48), they have third locked up. Chelmsford (72) doesn't have the most difficult of opponents either, though, so should they win, if Dover doesn't, they will have third. Farnborough (57) stands in their way. Eastleigh (71) has it hard, though. They get to play Welling. IF they win that, and that's a big "if," they still have to hope that neither of the teams ahead of them do. But honestly, I think they're going to be stuck with Salisbury.


Other end - a draw against Eastbourne must've felt like a win for Tonbridge Angels (45). It might as well have been a win; the result is the same, in that the Angels stay up while Hornchurch is boned no matter how well they do in their last match.


FEEDERS


Congratulations to Whitehawk FC! (85) They have clinched the Isthmian League title and therefore they'll be in the Conference South next season.




Tomorrow's going to be a BIG day. Last matches are being played in League One, League Two, Conference North, and Conference South!

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