Been a while since I updated this. Graduate degrees do that, y'know?
CHAMPIONSHIPWell, Cardiff (75) is still on top. In spite of a snag in form, they still have a seven-point lead atop the League Championship
and they have a game in hand to boot. Hull (68) is holding onto the other auto-promo spot for dear life, as both Watford (66) and Crystal Palace are right there nipping at their heels.
The playoff race has changed very little in terms of size since last update, but SWEET CREAM ON AN ICE CREAM SANDWICH! Where in the bluest of blue hells did Nottingham Forest (60) come from? They were six points out at last update, now here they are, on a seven-game unbeaten streak and a six-game win streak!
Let's compare the top 6 teams from the end of January and the top 6 now, shall we?
January1. Cardiff - 60
2. Leicester - 50 (ahead on goal diff)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. Hull - 50
4. Watford - 49
5. Crystal Palace - 48
6. Middlesbrough - 47
March1. Cardiff - 75 (no change here)
2. Hull - 68
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. Watford - 66
4. Crystal Palace - 65
5. Nottingham Forest - 60
6. Leicester - 59 (+25)
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7. Brighton & Hove - 59 (+16)
What's the point here? I'm highlighting how Middlesbrough (54) crashed and burned something fierce, Leicester has also been on a horrible run of form, and two of the "outside looking in" teams from last update have really pulled up their socks and put together some
good form to get themselves into at least striking distance of a playoff spot. Yes, Brighton & Hove have done well for themselves of late as well, having only lost two of their last nine. I'd also keep an eye on Bolton (54). They just had an 8-game unbeaten streak snapped by Ipswich, but if they can recover from that trip up in form, they'll be sailing. Middlesborough really needs to smarten up. They still have 54 points, but they've only taken in four points in their last six matches and have only won two of their last thirteen! (2-1-10
)
At the other end, things are much closer. Only seven points separates the top red-zone team, Peterborough U (42), from 11th-place Burnley (49). Yes, that means that more than half of the division is still in immediate danger of slipping under. Crazy, eh? With anywhere from 10 (only in the case of Millwall, who are a bit behind in their match play) to 8 matches (every side except Millwall, Cardiff, and Blackburn) remaining in the season, it's going to be very exciting stuff at the lower end:
11. Burnley - 49 (-1)
12. Birmingham - 49 (-9)
13. Derby - 48
14. Millwall - 47 (-6, 46 GF, 36 GP)
15. Charlton - 47 (-6, 46 GF, 38 GP)
16. Huddersfield - 47 (-24)
17. Blackpool - 46 (+1)
18. Blackburn - 46 (-3)
19. Ipswich - 46 (-19)
20. Barnsley - 44
21. Sheff W - 43
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22. Peterborough U - 42 (-9, 55 GF)
23. Wolverhampton - 42 (-9, 45 GF)
24. Bristol City - 39
A few things stand out to me. One of them is the fact that, in terms of goal statistics (for, against, and differential), Charlton and Millwall match up
exactly. You don't get
that often, do you? Another one, as encouragement for Bristol City fans, is that they are only four points from safety. Four points can be made up in no time if one plays one's cards right. Finally, I am astounded that Blackpool is able to keep a positive goal differential in spite of how low they are. Perhaps the fact that they are jointly second in the div in draws (with Blackburn and Birmingham, behind Brighton & Hove - what's with all the Bs?
) plays into this. Anyway, I will be doing more mini-updates as the time to do so comes; it's the stretch-run, so things can change in an instant.
LEAGUE ONEBad weather has put a cramp in the scheduling and as such the number of games remaining ranges from six to nine. However, I can still calculate the "bar of safety," and it is much lower relative to the table than it is in the Championship, where only Cardiff and Hull are "officially safe." Basically, one takes the points the first red-zoner has, then calculate the maximum number of points that are left for that team to obtain, and add the two together. Sometimes one needs to look at teams who are narrowly ahead of them but have played more matches. But anyway, in this case, the number comes to 59 - in other words, there are
ten teams in League One guaranteed to at least stay at this level for next season, with an eleventh, Notts County (58), set to join them if they win or draw and/or Sc*nthorpe (38) loses or draws.
Probably the most interesting part of the table is the playoff race. Sure, Doncaster (72) has a 5-point lead, but that same span of points contains all four playoff teams, the second auto-promo,
and the first team outside of the playoff race.
1. Doncaster - 72
2. Swindon - 67 (+34
)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
3. Bournemouth - 67 (+14, 65 GF)
4. Brentford - 67 (+14, 51 GF)
5. Tranmere - 66
6. Sheff U - 65
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7. Yeovil - 64
And that isn't it for the playoff race. There are a few dark horses as well. These are Walsall (61, +5), Leyton Orient (61, +4), and slipping Coventry (60), plus some could argue for Notts County as well although they have more catching up to do. Still, it's pretty good that most of the teams that I said had playoff shots last update still do, and being behind on their schedule is the reason that MK Dons (54) and Crawley (53) aren't currently in the loop. Good job by Orient to fight their way up; they're on a seven-game unbeaten streak (4-3-0).
At the other end, it seems Pompey (34) finally stopped feeling sorry for themselves and have strung together a not-too-bad run of form (3-1-1 in their last five matches). But it may be too little too late for them. Even Sc*nthorpe could find themselves deeper in trouble if Oldham (39) makes up on its lagging schedule - it has two games in hand on Sc*nthorpe and Bury (33) and three on Pompey and Hartlepool (also 33). If they were to make up both matches, that means they'd be chasing Colchester (43) instead. Shrewsbury (44) is also in immediate danger, while Carlisle (46) and Preston North End (47) are also not far enough ahead to rest on their laurels. (Personally, I hope Preston crashes and burns.
)
LEAGUE TWOMore cockeyed schedules here. At this point, those teams in the playoffs can
know that they are safe from potential relegation as the "magic number" is 59. However, also present in League Two is the highest point total for any last place team in the top four levels of English football - Aldershot has 40 points and is only three points behind the first team outside the red, Accrington Stanley (43, -18). I suspect the revolving-door scenario will continue at the bottom until the last matches have been played. The "immediate danger zone" (within 6 of the first red-zoner) is still fairly large at this point:
17. Dagenham & Redbridge - 47, -3
18. Rochdale - 47, -6
19. Torquay - 46 (my how the mighty have fallen
They were in the playoffs last season)
20. Barnet - 44
21. Plymouth - 43, -8
22. Accrington Stanley - 43, -18
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23. York City - 41
24. Aldershot - 40
There are two glaring omissions from this list - Bristol Rovers and AFC Wimbledon, who were in the red at last update. But there's a reason for this omission:
Bristol - 7-3-2 since last update
Wimbledon - 6-3-4 since last update
They both got bit by the "good form" bug
Although it took a little longer to get to Wimbledon as they started February with another draw and two losses to add to the two draws they had in a winless skid.
Up top, Gillingham (75) seems to be pulling away, although they have played one more match than 2nd-place Port Vale (67) and 3rd-place Burton Albion (66). The playoff contenders are all within six points of Port Vale at this point, though, which should make for an interesting auto-promo race:
2. Port Vale - 67
3. Burton Albion - 66
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
4. Northampton - 65 (+10)
5. Cheltenham - 65 (+7)
6. Exeter - 63
7. Rotherham - 61
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8. Fleetwood - 58
Now Rotherham is in a very advantageous position - they are one of three clubs to have only played 38 matches to this point (scheduling and all; Bradford and Wycombe are the other two), and who knows what an extra three points might do for them? Fleetwood is shown here because they are the most likely outside shot for the playoffs right now; that said, I would also have my eyes on Southend (55, +8) because they have a game in hand on Fleetwood, and Bradford (54) becaue of their two games in hand on the same and also the game in hand they have on everyone in the playoffs, Rotherham notwithstanding. Oxford (55, -6) has played the max amount of games and is thus at a disadvantage against these other two.
CONFERENCE PREMIEREven more messed-up scheduling, and in one team's case it could mean an early relegation sealing. Kidderminster (77) is currently on top but they have also played more matches than anyone else in the top half of the table (40 total) and have red-hot Mansfield (74) right behind them with three games in hand and a nine-game win streak. Get this - they've only lost
twice in 2013, and those were their only points dropped. To Kidderminster's credit, one of said Mansfield losses was to them back on 12 January. But one must wonder if Kidderminster is going to be able to keep ahead of Mansfield for much longer; to be fair, though, the Harriers have themselves only lost
three times in 2013, and those were their only points dropped - 1-0 losses to Hereford (DEM COWS) and Macclesfield, and a 2-0 blush-inducer against relegation-threatened Gateshead (44).
Wrexham (72) aren't doing too poorly either - even though they have played one more match than Mansfield and have many more draws, they have only lost
once in 2013 - 2-1 against Dartford a couple weeks ago, snapping a 13-game unbeaten streak going back to Boxing Day. They do need to have one eye on their six, though, since fellow Welsh side Newport County (66) have two games in hand on them; if they were to make those up, the two would be even in the points. The good news for Wrexham is that Newport's more recent form has taken a bit of a dive; they've only taken one point from their last three matches. But it could be worse. They could be Grimsby (64) and go from top to fifth. Seriously, since having their unbeaten streak snapped by Braintree in early February, things have taken a turn for the worst; Grimsby have only won twice in their last seven matches and all of those other five matches, including all of the last four, have ended as losses. They need a win against Gateshead to alleviate this downward plummet, but Gateshead can't be underestimated; just ask Kidderminster.
Another team whose luck turned downward is Forest Green (61) - they had only lost once in 2013 up to mid-February - highlights included a 5-0 bollocking of Newport on New Year's Day and a 4-1 rout of Braintree on 12 February - but since 19 February they have only one once out of seven, against a Southport (46) team that has lost five in a row. With both the team in front of them and the team behind them having two games in hand on them, Rovers may be in trouble, especially given the form the team behind them is on. Yes, Macclesfield (58) is somewhat on form, with a 7-5-2 record in 2013, including the current four-game unbeaten streak (3-1-0) that they're on, their only points dropped in that being a scoreless draw against Woking. I wouldn't rule out Macs making a move into playoff position in the recent future. Heck no.
One team to casually watch is mid-table Braintree (49). Even though they only have 49 points, they have only played 35 matches, and they're in the midst of a 6-match unbeaten streak (4-2-0) even though they had a 4-game win streak snapped by Woking courtesy of a 1-1 draw. If they were to successfully make up all four games they had in hand on Forest Green, they'd be even in points and on the doorstep of the playoffs (their goal diff is a bit bad at the moment though
).
Braintree is, however, also in this little area called the "immediate danger zone." Or actually, it isn't quite so little. Braintree is merely at the top of this ladder and they have an absurd number of matches in hand. (Games played in parentheses before the ranking number.)
(35) 13. Braintree - 49
(39) 14. Tamworth - 48 (-8)
(38) 15. Alfreton - 48 (-9)
(39) 16. Southport - 46
(39) 17. Hyde - 45 (-9)
(40) 18. Stockport - 45 (-14)
(37) 19. Gateshead - 44
(39) 20. Lincoln - 43 (-11)
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(38) 21. Nuneaton - 43 (-14)
(38) 22. Barrow - 40
(37) 23. Ebbsfleet - 36
(41) 24. Telford - 31
There are a few things to note in this section of the table. Obviously I've told you about Braintree's run of form, but it's also worth noting that both Alfreton (3-2-0) and Nuneaton (2-3-0) are on 5-game unbeaten streaks. If I were Lincoln, I'd be just a bit worried.
Gateshead, after finally earning their first points of 2013 in late February against Macclesfield, and in rather emphatic fashion, have been somewhat inconsistent but at least the points are coming. They are 4-1-3 in their last 8 and have put up some surprising results in that section - the aforementioned Macclesfield spiel and a 2-0 win over Kidderminster, and also a 3-2 win over Hyde. If they keep this up they just might survive the season! Considering the only team that has played fewer games in the bottom half of the table is Braintree, they have an advantage in having games in hand.
Now Southport was playing .500 football until they decided to start losing matches - they've now dropped five in a row and unless they smarten up, I just can't see them beating Newport. Gateshead, maybe, but given how they've come up big in matches they've been expected to lose, Southport has their work cut out for them in that one as well.
What of the red-zoners, though? I've already expressed some optimism with regards to Nuneaton - I honestly think they have it in them to pull themselves out of the red. But there's one team I think is pretty much boned - Telford. They've played more matches than anyone else in the league, they haven't won since friggin' OCTOBER, and they've only managed five points in 2013. FIVE... FLIPPING... POINTS! And to put things in context, they are twelve points behind Nuneaton and Lincoln. If Telford loses once more, which it seems
will happen, and if Nuneaton and Lincoln both gain at least one point, that is it for Telford; they're going down down down down, and if they were Altrincham or Ars*nal or Preston or someone else I actually disliked, I would start singing the chorus of that Bruce Springsteen song.
Ebbsfleet doesn't look much better, until you consider the fact that they have four more matches left in the season. They also have three more wins in 2013 than Telford, including a recent 4-1 throttling of Southport. So while they are in the red, the fact they've only played 37 matches helps their chances of survival. Barrow isn't too badly off either... yet.
CONFERENCE NORTHChester (91) seems to have this well in hand. Seriously, they have a sixteen-point lead over Guiseley (75) and they haven't lost since September. They have actually only dropped 11 points all season. Yes, that's right - out of a possible 102 points, they have 91. How 'bout dem apples?
Guiseley seems to have a nice little nest of their own in second place. They do have to be careful not to get too cocky up there, though, since Halifax (60) still has enough games in hand to make them a more immediate threat to Guiseley's runner-up spot. Surprising Brackley (64) has done very well for a team fresh out of the feeders that wasn't a reboot of another past team - this is the highest they've ever been on the football totem pole and they're looking quite good. They hold a respectable third although their form of late has slipped a wee bit. Halifax is fourth right now, even in points with... *shudders* Altrincham (60).
I wish those guys would just... go away. Maybe Guiseley can bring this five-game win streak they're on to an abrupt end.
Outside the playoff range, the only team that's super-close is Harrogate (59), and I could see them nipping in
if Altrincham starts slipping. I won't rule out Gainsborough Trinity (54) either, since they've two games in hand on Altrincham and one on Harrogate; if they make those two games on Altrincham up, they'd be even in points. Bradford Park Avenue (51) slipped up a fair bit over the last two months, so they're more in the "dark horse" category at this point. But as we've seen with other teams in this update, sometimes things come together for good for a specific club and I get proven wrong again. It's not a bad thing to be proven wrong. Except when it happens in favour of a team one doesn't like.
At the other end, yeah, Hinckley's screwed. They have nine matches left, and even if they were to somehow win every match they'd still come up two points shy of Corby (32). They still have just three... bloody...
sodding... POINTS!
And that 112 goals they've allowed... that's gotta be some kind of record.
Droylsden (16) is doing poorly enough that they'd be last in any other division. Mathematically they still have a chance, but those chances are fading with every match. At least they scraped together a win against Hinckley to the tune of 3-2; that is the only win they've managed since the end of last October! But in their last four matches they've been outscored by an abysmal 19-0.
It's when you get to Colwyn Bay (28) that you find red-zoners with a hope in hell of staying afloat. They're only four points from safety, with Corby in their crosshairs and two games in hand. Although Corby could attempt to foist some of that pressure off on Bishop's Stortford (36), it would probably be laughed off as BSFC
also has two games in hand on Corby. To be fair, none of these three teams has done all that well of late, and Colwyn, sadly enough, has the best form of the three of them!
CONFERENCE SOUTHScheduling isn't as messed up in the South as it is in the North; with one exception, all the teams have played between 32 and 35 matches (Bath has played 36). Welling (74) has a 9-point lead over Salisbury (65), who in turn have five points on Dover (60). Chelmsford (57) and Weston-super-Mare (53) hold the other two playoff spots, although Boreham Wood (52) and Eastleigh (49) are legitimate threats as well.
The other end is more interesting.
(33) 16. Maidenhead - 39
(32) 17. Eastbourne - 38 (-10)
(34) 18. Hornchurch - 38 (-12)
(32) 19. Tonbridge Angels - 36
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(32) 20. Staines - 34
(32) 21. Billericay - 32
(34) 22. Truro - 19
One odd stat is that Maidenhead has positive goal differential. What the crap are they doing down in this part of the table then?
Teams that are in danger but not as immediately include Hayes & Yeading (41), Basingstoke, Bath, and Havant & Waterlooville (all 44, and especially Bath since they have played 36 matches).
And that's all for now.
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