Mini-Update
CHAMPIONSHIPBye-bye Rotherham (17).
They lost 1-0 to Fulham, putting them far enough behind Bristol City (41) that they are now guaranteed relegation... and there's still seven matches left!
LEAGUE ONESheffield United (82) is now guaranteed at least a playoff spot after beating Millwall (63).
LEAGUE TWOI'd say the league is far enough along that I can introduce the bar of safety. With six matches remaining, the bar of safety sits at 54 points, and Accrington Stanley (55) are only the latest club to pass that point mark, having beating Plymouth Argyle (75) in an upset win.
NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTHPHEW! That was close! I thought Altrincham (17) might actually have a chance of staying afloat! But no, they're down to the feeders officially.
Salford City (67) condemned them to their fate with a 2-1 win earlier today, while keeping their own playoff situation alive. (Just for context, three matches have been played by most teams since last update.) Stalybridge Celtic (20) is still alive for now, as they have only played 34 matches to most teams' 37. Bar of safety is 46 points.
NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTHWith just five matches remaining, both Margate and Bishop's Stortford (both 24) are teetering dangerously close to relegation. Depending on what Whitehawk, Weston-super-Mare, and Truro (all 36) do in their next match or two, they could be out with just a single loss. The bar of safety is 47 points.
FEEDERSSince it's late in the season, I can also start throwing in upper-table situations from the Isthmian, Southern, and Northern Premier Leagues.
IsthmianReally a two-horse race at this point. Yes, Leiston (68) can still theoretically catch the two front-runners because of two games in hand, but on their current form, it seems very unlikely. So it's down to Bognor Regis (85) and Havant & Waterlooville (84) for top spot. Besides, Leiston has more pressing matters to worry about, like staying in the playoffs in the midst of a playoff logjam that's tighter than an undersized pair of shorts!
(All teams have played 42 matches unless otherwise indicated)
(40) 3. Leiston - 68, +35
4. Tonbridge Angels - 68, +12
5. Needham Market - 68, -3
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(40) 6. Dulwich Hamlet - 67
7. Enfield Town - 66, +24
8. Billericay Town - 66, +22
9. Wingate & Finchley - 66, +1
10. Harlow Town - 64
Southern LeagueAll the teams who are anywhere close to playoffs have played 42 matches, meaning there are just four to play in the regular season, and Chippenham (94) seem to be unstoppable at this point, having gone without losing since last mid-December. What's better, they've only dropped two points since January 10th, winning fourteen of their last fifteen! Leamington (88) was doing okay at keeping a step behind until quite recently, drawing against Hitchin (83) and losing a close one to playoff dark-horse hopefuls Frome (70).
Speaking of playoffs, it's getting down to the wire. Kettering (66) is such an outside shot that they literally need to win every single game to have a remote chance! A draw for Merthyr Town (77) or a win for Banbury United (76, first team outside) would eliminate them. Frome isn't doing much better. They may be only seven back compared to Kettering's eleven, but they also have Banbury between them and the promised land. Frome can't catch either Hitchin or Slough (also 83), so they have to get Merthyr and pass Banbury in the process. I honestly think it'll come down to Merthyr and Banbury for the last spot, and that Slough and Hitchin have very little to worry about.
Northern PremierIn spite of a couple recent losses, Blyth Spartans (88) are well ahead of the pack in first. If not for Spennymoor's (71) games in hand, they would actually be able to clinch the Northern Premier championship with either a draw, or a draw by Nantwich (74). But they need to add at least a win to that, or a Spennymoor loss.
Of course, there's also the playoff picture, which isn't quite as jammed up as the Isthmian League's, but still is very close:
(41) 2. Nantwich - 74
(41) 3. Stourbridge - 72
(39) 4. Spennymoor - 71, +36
(42) 5. Warrington - 71, +9
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(41) 6. Whitby - 69
(40) 7. Buxton - 68, +26
(41) 8. Matlock - 68, +12
(41) 9. Grantham - 67
(39) 10. Workington - 64
Warrington is at a distinct disadvantage here, from having played more matches
and having inferior goal differential to the almost all the teams surrounding them on both sides! (Whitby is only +8, though, putting
them at something of a disadvantage as well.)